North Africa is considered a climate change hot spot. Existing studies either focus on the physical aspects of climate change or discuss the social ones. The present article aims to address this divide by assessing and comparing the climate change vulnerability of Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia and linking it to its social implications. The vulnerability assessment focuses on climate change exposure, water resources, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results suggest that all countries are exposed to strong temperature increases and a high drought risk under climate change. Algeria is most vulnerable to climate change, mainly due to the country’s high sensitivity. Across North Africa, the combination of climate change and strong population growth is very likely to further aggravate the already scarce water situation. The so-called Arab Spring has shown that social unrest is partly caused by unmet basic needs of the population for food and water. Thus, climate change may become an indirect driver of social instability in North Africa. To mitigate the impact of climate change, it is important to reduce economic and livelihood dependence on rain-fed agriculture, strengthen sustainable land use practices, and increase the adaptive capacity. Further, increased regional cooperation and sub-national vulnerability assessments are needed.

中文翻译：

---

北非的气候变化脆弱性，水资源及其社会影响

北非被认为是气候变化的热点。现有研究要么关注气候变化的物理方面，要么讨论社会方面的问题。本文旨在通过评估和比较阿尔及利亚，埃及，利比亚，摩洛哥和突尼斯的气候变化脆弱性并将其与其社会影响联系起来，以解决这一分歧。脆弱性评估的重点是暴露于气候变化，水资源，敏感性和适应能力。结果表明，所有国家在气候变化下都面临着强烈的温度升高和高度干旱风险。阿尔及利亚最容易受到气候变化的影响，这主要是由于该国高度敏感。在整个北非，气候变化和强劲的人口增长相结合，很可能进一步加剧本已稀缺的水资源状况。所谓的“阿拉伯之春”表明，社会动荡的部分原因是人口对粮食和水的基本需求未得到满足。因此，气候变化可能成为北非社会不稳定的间接驱动因素。为了减轻气候变化的影响，重要的是减少对雨养农业的经济和生计依赖，加强可持续的土地利用做法，并提高适应能力。此外，需要加强区域合作和国家以下各级的脆弱性评估。加强土地可持续利用做法，提高适应能力。此外，需要加强区域合作和国家以下各级的脆弱性评估。加强土地可持续利用做法，提高适应能力。此外，需要加强区域合作和国家以下各级的脆弱性评估。