A two-objective, two-stage mathematical model was developed considering demand uncertainty and operational risk assessment in constructing a utility supply network for steam generation and steam exchange in a petrochemical industrial park. This study defined two objective functions, the total economic cost and risk cost, where the demand uncertainty enhanced the reliability of the utility network design. The economic and risk cost present a holistic study, where the actual operation cost and additional costs in case of industrial operation failure can be determined. For this, two stages were established for both objective functions, a deterministic stage and a stochastic stage. The deterministic stage fixed the parameter values for the optimization problem, while the stochastic stage included the steam supply-demand uncertainty. A case study of the Yeosu industrial park in South Korea was used to show the feasibility of the proposed method, proposing five scenarios for risk assessment analyses. A Pareto set was drawn, showing the optimal values of the optimization scenarios studied. From the optimization analysis, scenario 5 showed the best utility supply network design providing a more realistic network with a balanced total economic cost and risk cost, which presented the lowest risk operation of all facilities. From scenario 5, the results showed a decrease in economic cost by 65.5% to 67.6% compared to the current situation considering the risk costs for the operational risk.

中文翻译：

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需求不确定性下石化工业园区运营风险评估的最优公用事业供应网络

考虑到需求不确定性和运营风险评估，在石化工业园区构建用于蒸汽发生和蒸汽交换的公用事业供应网络，开发了一个双目标、两阶段的数学模型。本研究定义了两个目标函数，即总经济成本和风险成本，其中需求不确定性增强了公用事业网络设计的可靠性。经济和风险成本是一个整体研究，可以确定实际运营成本和工业运营失败时的额外成本。为此，为两个目标函数建立了两个阶段，确定性阶段和随机阶段。确定性阶段固定优化问题的参数值，而随机阶段包括蒸汽供需不确定性。韩国丽水工业园区的案例研究被用来展示所提出方法的可行性，提出了五种风险评估分析方案。绘制了一个帕累托集，显示了所研究的优化场景的最佳值。从优化分析来看，场景 5 显示了最佳的公用事业供应网络设计，提供了一个更现实的网络，平衡了总经济成本和风险成本，呈现了所有设施的最低风险运行。从情景 5 来看，考虑到操作风险的风险成本，结果表明，与当前情况相比，经济成本降低了 65.5% 至 67.6%。显示了所研究的优化方案的最佳值。从优化分析来看，方案 5 显示了最佳公用事业供应网络设计，提供了一个更现实的网络，平衡了总经济成本和风险成本，呈现了所有设施的最低风险运行。从情景 5 来看，考虑到操作风险的风险成本，结果表明，与当前情况相比，经济成本降低了 65.5% 至 67.6%。显示了所研究的优化方案的最佳值。从优化分析来看，方案 5 显示了最佳公用事业供应网络设计，提供了一个更现实的网络，平衡了总经济成本和风险成本，呈现了所有设施的最低风险运行。从情景 5 来看，考虑到操作风险的风险成本，结果表明，与当前情况相比，经济成本降低了 65.5% 至 67.6%。