Infrastructure reconstruction and development facilitates the transition of post-conflict economies to socio-economic stability and financial normalcy. The current system of measuring success is output-based and not a reliable indicator of outcome. Furthermore, standardised output metrics are easily and often abused. However, the outcome of any infrastructure project is by definition retrospective. The post-conflict context makes this particularly complicated. A direct retrospective measure of outcome is impractical, yet any situation-specific outcome-based metric must be current and relevant during construction to be practicable. Causal-chain-derived indicators of likely outcome provide a more relevant metric; the more indicators that point to a common outcome, the greater the confidence of that outcome being realised. This paper discusses an outcome-based causal chain approach to identifying indicator metrics.

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评估冲突后基础设施开发的成功

基础设施的重建和发展促进了冲突后经济向社会经济稳定和金融正常化的过渡。当前衡量成功的系统是基于输出的，而不是结果的可靠指标。此外，标准化的输出指标容易被滥用。但是，根据定义，任何基础设施项目的结果都是回顾性的。冲突后的情况使这一点特别复杂。对结果进行直接回顾性测量是不切实际的，但是任何基于特定情况的基于结果的度量标准都必须是最新的，并且在构建过程中具有现实意义。因果链可能的结果指标提供了更相关的指标；指向共同结果的指标越多，实现该结果的信心就越大。