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Quantifying process-level uncertainty contributions to TCRE and carbon budgets for meeting Paris Agreement climate targets
Environmental Research Letters ( IF 6.096 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-28 , DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/ab858a
Chris D Jones and Pierre Friedlingstein

To achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement requires deep and rapid reductions in anthropogenic CO 2 emissions, but uncertainty surrounds the magnitude and depth of reductions. Earth system models provide a means to quantify the link from emissions to global climate change. Using the concept of TCRE—the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions—we can estimate the remaining carbon budget to achieve 1.5 or 2 °C. But the uncertainty is large, and this hinders the usefulness of the concept. Uncertainty in carbon budgets associated with a given global temperature rise is determined by the physical Earth system, and therefore Earth system modelling has a clear and high priority remit to address and reduce this uncertainty. Here we explore multi-model carbon cycle simulations across three generations of Earth system models to quantitatively assess the sources of uncertainty which propagate through to TCRE. Our analysis brings new insights which will allow us ...
更新日期:2020-06-29

 

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