Global warming associated with greenhouse emissions will modify the availability of water resources in the future. Methodologies and tools to assess the impacts of climate change are useful for policy making. In this work, a new tool to generate potential future climate scenarios in a water resources system from historical and regional climate models’ information has been developed. The GROUNDS tool allows generation of the future series of precipitation, temperature (minimum, mean, and maximum), and potential evapotranspiration. It is a valuable tool for assessing the impacts of climate change in hydrological applications since these variables play a significant role in the water cycle, and it can be applicable to any case study. The tool uses different approaches and statistical correction techniques to generate individual local projections and ensembles of them. The non-equifeasible ensembles are created by combining the individual projections whose control or corrected control simulation has a better fit to the historical series in terms of basic and droughts statistics. In this work, the tool is presented, and the methodology implemented is described. It is also applied to a case study to illustrate how the tool works. The tool was previously tested in different typologies of water resources systems that cover different spatial scales (river basin, aquifer, mountain range, and country), obtaining satisfactory results. The local future scenarios can be propagated through appropriate hydrological models to study the impacts on other variables (e.g., aquifer recharge, chloride concentration in coastal aquifers, streamflow, snow cover area, and snow depth). The tool is also useful in quantifying the uncertainties of the future scenarios by combining them with stochastic weather generators.

中文翻译：

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为水文应用生成潜在未来气候情景的统计工具

与温室气体排放相关的全球变暖将改变未来水资源的可用性。评估气候变化影响的方法和工具对决策很有用。在这项工作中，开发了一种新工具，可根据历史和区域气候模型的信息在水资源系统中生成潜在的未来气候情景。GROUNDS 工具允许生成未来系列的降水、温度（最小值、平均值和最大值）和潜在蒸散量。它是评估气候变化对水文应用影响的宝贵工具，因为这些变量在水循环中发挥着重要作用，并且适用于任何案例研究。该工具使用不同的方法和统计校正技术来生成单独的局部投影和它们的集合。通过将控制或校正控制模拟在基本和干旱统计方面更适合历史序列的单个预测组合来创建非等效集合。在这项工作中，介绍了该工具，并描述了实施的方法。它还应用于案例研究以说明该工具的工作原理。该工具之前在覆盖不同空间尺度（河流流域、含水层、山脉和国家）的不同类型的水资源系统中进行了测试，获得了令人满意的结果。当地未来的情景可以通过适当的水文模型传播，以研究对其他变量（例如，含水层补给、沿海含水层中的氯化物浓度、河流流量、积雪面积和积雪深度）。通过将未来情景与随机天气发生器相结合，该工具还可用于量化未来情景的不确定性。