Citations are often used as a metric of the impact of scientific publications. Here, we examine how the number of downloads from Sci-hub as well as various characteristics of publications and their authors predicts future citations. Using data from 12 leading journals in economics, consumer research, neuroscience, and multidisciplinary research, we found that articles downloaded from Sci-hub were cited 1.72 times more than papers not downloaded from Sci-hub and that the number of downloads from Sci-hub was a robust predictor of future citations. Among other characteristics of publications, the number of figures in a manuscript consistently predicts its future citations. The results suggest that limited access to publications may limit some scientific research from achieving its full impact.

中文翻译：

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Sci-hub 效应：Sci-hub 下载导致更多文章引用

引用次数通常用作衡量科学出版物影响的指标。在这里，我们研究了从 Sci-hub 下载的数量以及出版物及其作者的各种特征如何预测未来的引用。使用经济学、消费者研究、神经科学和多学科研究领域 12 种领先期刊的数据，我们发现从 Sci-hub 下载的文章被引用次数是未从 Sci-hub 下载的论文的 1.72 倍，并且从 Sci-hub 下载的次数是是未来引用的有力预测指标。在出版物的其他特征中，手稿中的数字数量始终如一地预测其未来的引用。结果表明，对出版物的访问受限可能会限制某些科学研究实现其全部影响。