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Amplified Madden–Julian oscillation impacts in the Pacific–North America region
Nature Climate Change ( IF 29.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-29 , DOI: 10.1038/s41558-020-0814-0
Wenyu Zhou , Da Yang , Shang-Ping Xie , Jing Ma

The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is a slow-moving tropical mode that produces a planetary-scale envelope of convective storms. By exciting Rossby waves, the MJO creates teleconnections with far-reaching impacts on extratropical circulation and weather. Although recent studies have investigated the response of the MJO to anthropogenic warming, not much is known about potential changes in its teleconnections. Here, we show that the MJO teleconnection pattern in boreal winter will likely extend further eastward over the North Pacific. This is primarily due to an eastward shift in the exit region of the subtropical jet, to which the teleconnection pattern is anchored, and assisted by an eastward extension of the MJO itself. The eastward-extended teleconnection enables the MJO to have a greater impact downstream on the Northeast Pacific and North American west coast. Over California specifically, the multi-model mean projects a 54% increase in MJO-induced precipitation variability by 2100 under a high-emissions scenario.



中文翻译:

Madden-Julian振荡对太平洋-北美地区的影响加剧

麦登—朱利安涛动(MJO)是一种缓慢移动的热带模式,产生对流风暴的行星尺度范围。通过激发罗斯比波,MJO建立了遥相关,对温带环流和天气产生了深远的影响。尽管最近的研究已经调查了MJO对人为变暖的反应,但对其遥相关的潜在变化知之甚少。在这里,我们表明,北方冬季的MJO遥相关模式可能会在北太平洋向东延伸。这主要归因于亚热带急流出口区域的东移,遥距连接模式被锚定在该区域上,并由MJO自身的向东延伸辅助。东向延伸的远程连接使MJO对东北太平洋和北美西海岸的下游影响更大。特别是在加利福尼亚州,在高排放情景下,多模式均值预测到2100年MJO引起的降水变异性增加54%。

更新日期:2020-06-29
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