Comparing emissions scenarios is an essential part of mitigation analysis, as climate targets can be met in various ways with different economic, energy system and co-benefit implications. Typically, a central ‘reference scenario’ acts as a point of comparison, and often this has been a no policy baseline with no explicit mitigative action taken. The use of such baselines is under increasing scrutiny, raising a wider question around the appropriate use of reference scenarios in mitigation analysis. In this Perspective, we assess three critical issues relevant to the use of reference scenarios, demonstrating how different policy contexts merit the use of different scenarios. We provide recommendations to the modelling community on best practice in the creation, use and communication of reference scenarios.

比较排放情景是缓解分析的重要组成部分，因为可以通过各种方式实现气候目标，同时具有不同的经济，能源系统和共同效益。通常，以中央“参考方案”为比较点，并且通常这是没有政策基线，没有采取任何明确的缓解措施。对此类基准的使用正受到越来越严格的审查，围绕缓解方案分析中参考方案的适当使用提出了一个更广泛的问题。在此观点中，我们评估了与参考情景的使用相关的三个关键问题，展示了不同的政策环境应如何使用不同情景。我们向建模社区提供有关创建，使用和交流参考方案的最佳实践的建议。