Abstract The inherent uncertainties associated with offshore wind are substantial, as are the investments. Therefore, investors are keen to identify and evaluate the risks. This paper presents a model to economically evaluate projects from an offshore transmission owner’s perspective by considering the revenue streams, capital costs, and operational expenditure. To allow a more realistic economic evaluation, data, regulatory information, and expert knowledge are collected, curated and, where necessary, combined with statistical techniques. A generic 1.2 GW project is used as a case study. This research contributes to a deeper understanding of the severe uncertainties involved in offshore transmission planning and their impact on a project’s expected profit. Understanding their impact, through a sensitivity analysis where individually one factor is varied within an interval, supports informed decision making with limited information. Uncertainty in interest rates, planned operational expenditure and, particularly, cable failure rates were found to be critical to an investor’s return. For the case study considered, comparing cable failure rates based on operational experience to inputs based on literature, resulted in a 64.2% lower net present value. In conclusion, further research into cable failures, and addressing the uncertainty in inputs used for economic evaluations could be beneficial to the industry.

中文翻译：

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严重不确定性下海上输电资产规划的经济模型

摘要 与海上风电相关的固有不确定性很大，投资也是如此。因此，投资者热衷于识别和评估风险。本文提出了一个模型，通过考虑收入流、资本成本和运营支出，从海上输电所有者的角度对项目进行经济评估。为了进行更现实的经济评估，收集、整理数据、监管信息和专家知识，并在必要时结合统计技术。一个通用的 1.2 GW 项目用作案例研究。这项研究有助于更深入地了解海上输电规划中涉及的严重不确定性及其对项目预期利润的影响。了解它们的影响，通过敏感性分析，单个因素在一个区间内变化，支持在有限信息的情况下做出明智的决策。利率、计划运营支出，尤其是电缆故障率的不确定性对投资者的回报至关重要。对于所考虑的案例研究，将基于操作经验的电缆故障率与基于文献的输入进行比较，净现值降低了 64.2%。总之，对电缆故障的进一步研究以及解决用于经济评估的输入的不确定性可能对行业有益。发现电缆故障率对投资者的回报至关重要。对于所考虑的案例研究，将基于操作经验的电缆故障率与基于文献的输入进行比较，净现值降低了 64.2%。总之，对电缆故障的进一步研究以及解决用于经济评估的输入的不确定性可能对行业有益。发现电缆故障率对投资者的回报至关重要。对于所考虑的案例研究，将基于操作经验的电缆故障率与基于文献的输入进行比较，净现值降低了 64.2%。总之，对电缆故障的进一步研究以及解决用于经济评估的输入的不确定性可能对行业有益。