Rapid population growth coupled with climate change has been putting pressure on natural resources worldwide, especially on water resources. The Paracatu basin located in Brazil is a basin which has been showing a reduction in its water availability for many years due to the growing demand for irrigation in the region. Therefore, the objective of the present work was to analyze the trends in the flow and precipitation data for the Paracatu basin and correlate them with land use between the years 1980 and 2019, and thus make a projection of flows through the year 2030 based on these results. The projections of future flows in the fluviometric stations analyzed were obtained using the WEAP model, considering the projected increase in the irrigated area for the region and the future climate data from the IPCC for the RCP 4.5 scenario. The results of the analyzes indicated a tendency towards a reduction in flows in all the analyzed fluviometric stations, both in the monthly and annual series, whereas the total annual precipitation did not show a trend in the analyzed period. Future flows showed a downward trend, as well as flows observed in the period from 1980 to 2019, reinforcing that activities such as irrigated agriculture without planning can negatively affect the sustainability of water resources, intensifying conflicts and tensions which already exist in the basin. This type of analysis proved to have great potential to contribute to the solution of water resource management challenges in several hydrographic basins around the world which are in a situation of scarcity and conflict.

人口的快速增长加上气候变化，一直在给全球自然资源，尤其是水资源造成压力。由于该地区对灌溉的需求不断增加，位于巴西的Paracatu盆地多年来一直显示出水资源短缺的状况。因此，本研究的目的是分析帕拉卡图盆地的流量和降水数据趋势，并将其与1980年至2019年之间的土地利用相关联，从而根据这些数据对2030年的流量进行预测。结果。考虑到该区域的灌溉面积的预计增长以及来自IPCC的RCP 4.5情景的未来气候数据，使用WEAP模型获得了对所分析的流量站未来流量的预测。分析结果表明，所有分析的流量站的流量都有减少的趋势，包括月度和年度序列，而总年降水量在分析期间没有趋势。未来的流量以及1980年至2019年期间观察到的流量都呈下降趋势，这进一步说明了诸如计划外的灌溉农业等活动可能对水资源的可持续性产生负面影响，加剧了流域已经存在的冲突和紧张局势。这种类型的分析被证明具有巨大的潜力，可以帮助解决世界上几个处于短缺和冲突状况的水文流域的水资源管理挑战。