Elephants are the largest extant terrestrial animals and are important for maintaining regional ecosystem balance and community diversity. However, poaching, population growth, habitat fragmentation, and viruses are major threats to global elephant populations. Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the major threats to the health of elephants. Global warming has a serious impact on wildlife and accelerates the spread of viruses. In this study, the effects of climate change on the risk of disease in elephants were evaluated based on 1,833 sites with reported FMD cases. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was used to model the current and future geographic distributions of FMD and to assess the risk of FMD in elephants under climate change. The results showed that the average annual temperature and annual precipitation were higher in elephant habitats than in the range of the FMD virus. The mean temperature in the driest quarter, temperature seasonality, annual mean temperature, and precipitation in the driest month had relatively large contributions to the risk of FMD, with a cumulative contribution rate of 82.8%. Both Asian elephants and African elephants had high overlap with the FMD virus with respect to altitude, annual mean temperature, and annual precipitation. An overall high risk of disease was detected at a certain band, mainly concentrated from 10°N to 50°N in the northern hemisphere and from 10°S to 35°S in the southern hemisphere. The risk of FMD was higher for the Asian elephant than the African elephant. The FMD risk increased gradually from the southeast to northwest in habitats of the Asian elephant, and presented a pattern of high north–south risk and low intermediate risk in the habitats of the African elephant. The area proportions of high risk, medium risk, and low risk in the distribution of both the Asian elephant and African elephant were all higher than the proportions of all risk types worldwide. Under global warming, the FMD risk was not expected to change significantly in most of the habitat areas of the Asian elephant or the African elephant in the 2050s and 2070s. Moreover, the areas and proportions of high risk, medium risk, and low risk were likely to change slightly. These results could benefit the conservation of elephants and provide relevant data for the prevention of FMD in high-risk areas under climate change.

大象是现存最大的陆生动物，对维持区域生态系统平衡和社区多样性至关重要。但是，偷猎，人口增长，栖息地破碎和病毒是对全球大象种群的主要威胁。口蹄疫（FMD）是对大象健康的主要威胁之一。全球变暖对野生生物造成了严重影响，并加速了病毒的传播。在这项研究中，基于报告的FMD病例的1,833个地点，评估了气候变化对大象患病风险的影响。最大熵（MaxEnt）用于模拟当前和未来口蹄疫的地理分布，并评估气候变化下大象口蹄疫的风险。结果表明，大象栖息地的年平均温度和年降水量高于口蹄疫病毒的范围。最干燥季度的平均温度，温度季节，年度平均温度和最干燥月份的降水对口蹄疫的风险影响相对较大，累计贡献率为82.8％。就高度，年平均温度和年降水量而言，亚洲象和非洲象都与口蹄疫病毒高度重叠。在一定范围内检测到总体上疾病的高风险，主要集中在北半球的10°N到50°N和南半球的10°S到35°S。亚洲象的口蹄疫风险高于非洲象。在亚洲象的栖息地中，口蹄疫风险从东南向西北逐渐增加，在非洲象的栖息地中呈现出高南北风险和低中度风险的格局。在亚洲象和非洲象的分布中，高风险，中风险和低风险的面积比例均高于全世界所有风险类型的比例。在全球变暖的情况下，预计在2050年代和2070年代，亚洲象或非洲象的大多数栖息地的口蹄疫风险都不会发生显着变化。此外，高风险，中风险和低风险的区域和比例可能会略有变化。这些结果可能有益于保护大象，并为在气候变化下高风险地区预防口蹄疫提供相关数据。