This paper estimates the short-term impact of a twofold increase of the tobacco excise tax on consumption of illicit cigarette trade in Colombia. Using data collected before and after the tax increase from a novel smoker survey (DEICS-Col), the impact is estimated as the change in the probability that a smoker has illicit cigarettes. The methodology follows a difference-in-differences strategy, measuring the year-to-year variation of the proportion of illicit cigarettes between smokers who report buying low-priced cigarettes (the highest treatment intensity) and those who bought high-priced cigarettes (lowest treatment intensity). Estimations of the impact show an average increase of 4–5 percentage points on the proportion of illicit cigarettes relative to an initial penetration of low-priced illicit cigarettes of nearly 5.1 %.

本文估计了烟草消费税增加两倍对哥伦比亚非法卷烟贸易消费的短期影响。使用从新的吸烟者调查（DEICS-Col）上调税收之前和之后收集的数据，将影响估计为吸烟者拥有非法卷烟的概率的变化。该方法遵循差异策略，测量报告购买低价卷烟（最高治疗强度）的吸烟者和购买高价卷烟（最低治疗强度）的吸烟者之间非法卷烟比例的逐年变化。治疗强度）。对该影响的估计表明，相对于低价非法香烟的初始渗透率接近5.1％，非法香烟的比例平均增加了4-5个百分点。