Operational ecological forecasting is an emerging field that leverages ecological models in a new, cross-disciplinary way – using a real-time or nearly real-time climate forecast to project near-term ecosystem states. These applications give decision-makers lead time to anticipate and manage state changes that degrade ecosystem functions or directly impact humans. The Everglades Forecasting model (EverForecast) is an operational forecast model designed specifically for conservation management purposes including water management. It provides up to six-month forecasts of daily projected, spatially continuous stage values across the Everglades. We validated EverForecast quarterly to measured historical values at 207 gages (Jan 1, 2000–Dec 31, 2019). The EverForecast hindcasts of water stage accurately captured measured stage variation, with a low percentage of measured stages exceeding hindcasted values. Over the whole spatial extent, the mean RMSE is 20.98 cm, the mean MAE is 14.42 cm, and the mean MBE is 0.91 cm.

可操作的生态预测是一个新兴领域，它以一种新的，跨学科的方式利用生态模型-使用实时或接近实时的气候预测来预测近期的生态系统状态。这些应用程序使决策者有时间预测和管理状态变化，这些变化会降低生态系统功能或直接影响人类。大沼泽地预报模型（EverForecast）是专门为包括水管理在内的保护管理目的而设计的运营预报模型。它提供了整个大沼泽地的每日预计，空间连续阶段价值的长达六个月的预测。我们每季度对EverForecast进行验证，以测得207格的历史值（2000年1月1日至2019年12月31日）。水位的EverEcast预测准确地捕获了测得的水位变化，超过后验值的测得阶段的百分比很低。在整个空间范围内，平均RMSE为20.98厘米，平均MAE为14.42厘米，平均MBE为0.91厘米。