The present study is focused on the potential distribution of the Lebanese cedar (Cedrus libani) in the present and in the future throughout the twenty-first century. The location of this work encompasses Lebanon, Syria and Turkey. Twenty-four environmental variables are used and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios for two different time periods are studied: RCP 4.5 2050, RCP 4.5 2070, RCP 8.5 2050 and RCP 8.5 2070. The most interesting novelty is the use of 13 General Circulation Models and 6 algorithms (Climate Space Model, Envelope Score, Environmental Distance, Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production, Maximum Entropy and Support Vector Machines) were considered for modelling. Area Under the Curve is used as goodness of fit and building the final consensus map. The global habitat suitability area would enlarge in the forecasted scenarios with respect to the present, although it would be more restricted in 2070 due to the altitudinal shift. This study also suggests an interesting approach to manage C. libani stands by means of afforestation programs aiming to face global warming in the late twenty-first century.

本研究的重点是黎巴嫩雪松（雪松）的潜在分布）在整个二十一世纪的现在和将来。这项工作的地点包括黎巴嫩，叙利亚和土耳其。使用了24个环境变量，并研究了两个不同时间段的两种代表性集中途径（RCP）场景：RCP 4.5 2050，RCP 4.5 2070，RCP 8.5 2050和RCP 8.52070。最有趣的新颖之处是使用13 General考虑使用循环模型和6种算法（气候空间模型，信封得分，环境距离，规则集生成的遗传算法，最大熵和支持向量机）进行建模。曲线下面积被用作拟合的优度并建立最终的共识图。就目前的预测情况而言，全球栖息地适宜性区域将扩大，尽管由于高度变化，到2070年将受到更多限制。这项研究还提出了一种有趣的管理方法C. libani坚持通过植树造林计划，旨在应对二十一世纪末的全球变暖。