Reducing emissions will require significant changes in the production and consumption of emissions-intensive energy. These changes will necessitate two broad sets of actions: first, energy-intensive end-use sectors must reduce their demand for energy by becoming more energy efficient, and second, energy systems and the energy supplies they use must become less carbon-intensive. In this paper, we describe a set of emissions analysis methods to distinguish between these two actions, showing whether an end-use sector (represented by a jurisdiction’s economy) is coupled with or decoupled from the energy system, or the energy system and its energy supplies are carbonizing or decarbonizing, or some combination of (de)coupling and (de)carbonizing. We then apply the method to the changes in the economy, energy supply, and emissions of the members of the G20 between 2008 and 2017. The results show that 14 members experienced a degree of coupling and that for 18 members, and globally, the principal reason for any degree of emissions decline was demand reduction as opposed to changes to their energy systems. We conclude by suggesting significant decarbonization efforts are needed through the replacement and restructuring of energy systems and their energy sources.

中文翻译：

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G20 经济和能源系统中的（去）耦合和（去）碳化

减少排放需要对排放密集型能源的生产和消费进行重大改变。这些变化将需要采取两套广泛的行动：首先，能源密集型终端使用部门必须通过提高能源效率来减少对能源的需求；其次，能源系统及其使用的能源供应必须降低碳密集度。在本文中，我们描述了一套排放分析方法来区分这两种行为，显示最终使用部门（以辖区经济为代表）是与能源系统耦合还是分离，或者能源系统及其能源供应正在碳化或脱碳，或（脱）耦合和（脱）碳的某种组合。然后我们将该方法应用于经济、能源供应的变化，2008 年至 2017 年 G20 成员的排放量。结果显示，14 个成员经历了一定程度的耦合，而 18 个成员，在全球范围内，任何程度的排放下降的主要原因是需求减少而不是变化他们的能源系统。最后，我们建议需要通过更换和重组能源系统及其能源来进行重大的脱碳努力。