Lead (Pb) exposure can delay children’s mental development and cause behavioral disorders and IQ deficits. With children spending a significant portion of their time at schools, it is critical to investigate the lead concentration in schools’ drinking water to prevent children’s exposure. The objectives of this work were to predict students’ geometric mean (GM) blood lead levels (BLLs), the fractions of at-risk students (those with BLLs > 5 μg/dL), and the total number of at-risk students in one Tennessee school district. School drinking water lead concentration data collected in 2019 were input into the Integrated Exposure Uptake Biokinetic (IEUBK) model and the Bowers’ model to predict BLLs for elementary school students and secondary school students, respectively. Sensitivity analyses were conducted for both models. Drinking water concentrations were qualitatively compared with data collected in 2017. Two scenarios were evaluated for each model to provide upper and median estimates. The weighted GM BLL upper and median estimates for elementary school students were 2.35 μg/dL and 0.99 μg/dL, respectively. This equated to an upper estimate of 1300 elementary school students (5.8%) and a median estimate of 140 elementary school students (0.6%) being at risk of elevated BLLs. Similarly, the weighted GM BLL upper and median estimates for secondary school students were 2.99 μg/dL and 1.53 μg/dL, respectively, and equated to an upper estimate of 6900 secondary school students (13.6%) and a median estimate of 300 secondary school students (0.6%) being at risk of elevated BLLs. Drinking water remediation efforts are recommended for schools exhibiting water lead concentrations greater than 15 μg/L. Site-specific soil lead concentration data are recommended since the IEUBK was deemed sensitive to soil lead concentrations. For this reason, soil lead remediation may have a greater impact on lowering children’s BLLs than drinking water lead remediation. Remediation efforts are especially vital at elementary schools to reduce the population’s baseline BLL and thus the BLL projected by Bowers’ model.

中文翻译：

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因接触学校饮用水中的铅而导致儿童血铅水平的预测——美国田纳西州的案例研究

铅 (Pb) 暴露会延迟儿童的智力发育并导致行为障碍和智商缺陷。由于儿童大部分时间都在学校度过，因此调查学校饮用水中的铅浓度以防止儿童接触铅是至关重要的。这项工作的目的是预测学生的几何平均 (GM) 血铅水平 (BLL)、高危学生的比例（那些 BLL > 5 μg/dL 的学生）以及高危学生的总数。一个田纳西学区。将 2019 年收集的学校饮用水铅浓度数据输入综合暴露吸收生物动力学 (IEUBK) 模型和 Bowers 模型，分别预测小学生和中学生的 BLL。对两种模型都进行了敏感性分析。饮用水浓度与 2017 年收集的数据进行了定性比较。每个模型都评估了两种情景，以提供上限值和中值估计值。小学生的加权 GM BLL 上限和中位数估计值分别为 2.35 μg/dL 和 0.99 μg/dL。这相当于 1300 名小学生 (5.8%) 的上限估计和 140 名小学生 (0.6%) 的中位数估计有 BLL 升高的风险。同样，中学生的加权 GM BLL 上限和中位数估计值分别为 2.99 μg/dL 和 1.53 μg/dL，相当于 6900 名中学生 (13.6%) 的上限估计值和 300学生 (0.6%) 有 BLL 升高的风险。建议对水铅浓度超过 15 微克/升的学校进行饮用水修复工作。建议使用特定地点的土壤铅浓度数据，因为 IEUBK 被认为对土壤铅浓度敏感。出于这个原因，土壤铅修复可能比饮用水铅修复对降低儿童的 BLL 产生更大的影响。补救工作在小学尤其重要，以减少人口的基线 BLL，从而降低 Bowers 模型预测的 BLL。