Abstract Floods are becoming more frequent and the magnitude of direct consequences, relating to destruction of critical infrastructure and loss of life, has highlighted the importance of flood management. This study proposes a methodology for quantifying the impact of predicted and historic flood events on emergency services. The approach moves beyond simple flood inundation mapping by accounting for the relationship between flood depth and vehicular speed. A case study is presented for Calgary, Alberta, where the depths of a predicted 100-year flood and a historic 2013 flood event are modeled. The methodology applies geographic information systems to flood depth mapping, utilizing digital elevation models, flood extents, and hydrological data. Flood depths are then assigned to links comprising the road network, where the maximum vehicle speed is calculated as a function of the standing depth of water on a link. The flooded network is used to derive service areas for several types of emergency services (emergency medical services (EMS), fire, and police), following targeted response times. The results locate and quantify the residential and work populations that no longer meet the targeted response times. During both flood scenarios, EMS is found to have the greatest reduction in accessibility, with 23% and 47% of residents and workers, respectively, not served. Fire services are seen to be more resilient with only 3% and 9% of residents and workers, respectively, not served. The results for police services are similar to fire services. However, the former have a greater range of response times, meaning these areas represent those that are completely isolated during both flood events. Overall, the integrated methodology quantifies vulnerable populations on a partially degraded network, the results of which can be used to develop evacuation plans and emergency response strategies.

中文翻译：

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模拟洪水对紧急服务影响的综合方法：阿尔伯塔省卡尔加里的案例研究

摘要 洪水变得越来越频繁，与关键基础设施的破坏和生命损失相关的直接后果的严重程度凸显了洪水管理的重要性。本研究提出了一种量化预测和历史洪水事件对紧急服务的影响的方法。通过考虑洪水深度和车辆速度之间的关系，该方法超越了简单的洪水淹没绘图。介绍了阿尔伯塔省卡尔加里的案例研究，其中模拟了预测的 100 年洪水和 2013 年历史性洪水事件的深度。该方法将地理信息系统应用于洪水深度测绘，利用数字高程模型、洪水范围和水文数据。然后将洪水深度分配给构成道路网络的链接，其中，最大车速计算为链路上水深的函数。根据目标响应时间，被淹没的网络用于为多种类型的紧急服务（紧急医疗服务 (EMS)、消防和警察）派生服务区。结果定位和量化不再满足目标响应时间的居住和工作人口。在这两种洪水情景中，发现 EMS 的可达性下降幅度最大，分别有 23% 和 47% 的居民和工人没有得到服务。消防服务被认为更具弹性，分别只有 3% 和 9% 的居民和工人没有得到服务。警察服务的结果类似于消防服务。但是，前者的响应时间范围更大，这意味着这些区域代表在两次洪水事件期间完全隔离的区域。总体而言，该综合方法量化了部分退化网络上的弱势群体，其结果可用于制定疏散计划和应急响应策略。