The air-source heat pump (ASHP) is a popular system that does not see much use in cold-climates despite its high potential in low carbon footprint. This study was designed to evaluate the techno-economic feasibility of its application to single-detached homes in Canada. First, a set of support vector regression (SVR) models was developed by a housing database for prediction of the exposed surface areas of homes in five Canadian cities: Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal, Edmonton, and Yellowknife. The predicted areas were then used to estimate the heat demands of all homes. As a result, the technical evaluation was conducted by comparison of the heat loss rate with the heat supply rate of ASHPs. Annual energy consumption was calculated using a bin method for furnace-alone and furnace/ASHP hybrid systems. Seasonal operating costs and greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions were estimated by utility costs and emissions factors for each city. Our findings show that Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal are technically feasible to adopt the ASHP technology for economic and low GHG emission benefits. Although currently Edmonton and Yellowknife could not theoretically gain ASHP’s benefits, the ASHP technology is still a promising technology to be implemented in the future if renewable energy infrastructures are established.

空气源热泵（ASHP）是一种流行的系统，尽管它在低碳足迹方面具有很高的潜力，但在寒冷气候中却没有多大用处。本研究旨在评估将其应用于加拿大的独立式住宅的技术经济可行性。首先，住房数据库开发了一组支持向量回归（SVR）模型，用于预测加拿大五个城市（温哥华，多伦多，蒙特利尔，埃德蒙顿和耶洛奈夫）房屋的暴露表面积。然后，将预测面积用于估算所有房屋的热量需求。结果，通过将热损失率与ASHP的供热率进行比较来进行技术评估。对于独立炉和炉/ ASHP混合系统，使用bin方法计算年能耗。通过每个城市的公用事业成本和排放因子估算季节性运营成本和温室气体（GHG）排放。我们的发现表明，温哥华，多伦多和蒙特利尔在技术上是可行的，可以采用ASHP技术获得经济和低温室气体排放的收益。尽管目前埃德蒙顿和耶洛奈夫在理论上无法获得ASHP的好处，但如果建立了可再生能源基础设施，则ASHP技术仍然是有希望在未来实施的技术。