Abstract It is important to know the growth rate of the species to be managed to establish sustainable forest management plans because from this information, it is possible to know which species have reached the minimum commercial size to be collected in future harvests. Manilkara elata (Allemao ex Miq.) Monach is considered one of the most commercialized timber tree species, both inside and outside of Brazil. Thus, the objective of this study was to model the growth rate and the time required for the trees of this species to reach the minimum cutting diameter defined by the current Brazilian legislation; the analysis was based on the adapted Weibull function with data from 31 years of monitoring in the National Forest of Brazil in Tapajos, Para, Amazon, Brazil. Three models were proposed to estimate (i) the annual periodic increase in diameter (API), (ii) the future diameter (df) and (iii) the time period in years (t) that each tree would need to reach a future diameter according to the average growth rate of the target species and its forest community. Taken together, the data from the managed and unmanaged areas showed no statistically significant differences between the values observed and estimated by the proposed model when assessed with the Graybill F test. The adapted Weibull model performed well when estimating the annual periodic increment and future tree diameter of the M. elata population. Based on the diameter growth rate, the 5 cm diameter M. elata trees would require 601–781 years to reach the minimum commercial diameter of 50 cm, but the 40–49.9 cm diameter trees that are considered stock for the next harvest would take an average of 20 years to reach this commercial diameter. As the estimated average growth time is shorter than the cutting cycle prescribed by the legislation (25–35 years), it is recommended that forestry treatments that favor longer survival of M. elata individuals be adopted to achieve greater continuous production by primarily considering the long period that young individuals need to reach the cutting diameter.

中文翻译：

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亚马逊雨林需要多长时间才能种植商业规模的树木？Manilkara elata (Allemão ex Miq.) Monach 的估计方法

摘要 了解要管理的物种的生长速度以制定可持续的森林管理计划很重要，因为根据这些信息，可以知道哪些物种已达到在未来收获时要收集的最小商业规模。Manilkara elata (Allemao ex Miq.) Monach 被认为是巴西境内外商业化程度最高的木材树种之一。因此，本研究的目的是模拟该物种的树木达到巴西现行立法规定的最小切割直径所需的生长速度和时间；该分析基于调整后的 Weibull 函数，其中包含在巴西亚马孙帕拉塔帕霍斯的巴西国家森林中进行 31 年监测的数据。提出了三个模型来估计 (i) 每年定期增加的直径 (API)，(ii) 未来直径 (df) 和 (iii) 每棵树达到未来直径所需的时间周期 (t)根据目标物种及其森林群落的平均增长率。综上所述，当使用 Graybill F 检验评估时，来自管理和非管理区域的数据显示，所提出的模型观察到的值和估计的值之间没有统计学上的显着差异。在估计 M. elata 种群的年度周期性增量和未来树径时，调整后的 Weibull 模型表现良好。根据直径增长率，5 厘米直径的 M. elata 树需要 601-781 年才能达到 50 厘米的最小商业直径，但 40-49 年。9 厘米直径的树木被认为是下一次收获的库存，平均需要 20 年才能达到这个商业直径。由于估计的平均生长时间比立法规定的采伐周期短（25-35 年），建议采用有利于 M. elata 个体更长生存期的林业处理，主要考虑长年轻人需要达到切割直径的时期。