Abstract An important factor in a circular agricultural system is the efficient use of animal manure. Until now, the applied quantity of manure is regulated by law at farm level, based on fixed phosphorus (P) application norms. However, a first step towards more efficient manure application is to better balance P input and output at field level by predicting future P yields. Machine learning techniques can be useful in this respect, because they can be trained with many variables without prior knowledge regarding their interrelationship. This study’s objective, therefore, was to predict P yields based on detailed records of on-farm data as recorded on an experimental farm combined with open source weather data. The dataset contained 657 records of annual crop yields per field between 1993 and 2016, and the boosted regression model was used for model development. Validation on the final five years of the dataset resulted in an RMSE of 7.3 kg P per ha per year, an R-squared of 0.46 and a correlation between observed and predicted values of 0.68, outperforming legal norms. We conclude that with the limited but detailed data available, prediction of P yield, and therewith, defining flexible P application norms before first manure application, is already feasible. This conclusion, together with the expected increasing availability of data through proximal and remote sensing technologies, opens the way to further improve nutrient management and move towards circular agriculture in the future.

中文翻译：

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基于历史数据和机器学习的奶牛场田间和作物特定肥料应用

摘要 循环农业系统的一个重要因素是动物粪便的有效利用。到目前为止，根据固定磷 (P) 施用规范，农场一级的法律规定了肥料的施用量。然而，实现更有效施肥的第一步是通过预测未来的磷产量来更好地平衡田间磷的输入和输出。机器学习技术在这方面很有用，因为它们可以用许多变量进行训练，而无需事先了解它们之间的相互关系。因此，本研究的目标是根据实验农场记录的农场数据的详细记录以及开源天气数据来预测磷产量。该数据集包含 1993 年至 2016 年每田每年作物产量的 657 条记录，并使用boosted回归模型进行模型开发。对数据集最后五年的验证导致 RMSE 为每年每公顷 7.3 公斤磷，R 平方为 0.46，观察值和预测值之间的相关性为 0.68，优于法律规范。我们得出的结论是，由于可用的数据有限但详细，预测磷产量，从而在第一次施肥之前定义灵活的施磷规范已经是可行的。这一结论，再加上通过近端和遥感技术预期增加的数据可用性，为进一步改善养分管理和未来转向循环农业开辟了道路。46，观察值和预测值之间的相关性为 0.68，优于法律规范。我们得出的结论是，由于可用的数据有限但详细，预测磷产量并因此在第一次施肥之前定义灵活的施磷规范已经是可行的。这一结论，再加上通过近端和遥感技术预期增加的数据可用性，为进一步改善养分管理和未来转向循环农业开辟了道路。46，观察值和预测值之间的相关性为 0.68，优于法律规范。我们得出的结论是，由于可用的数据有限但详细，预测磷产量并因此在第一次施肥之前定义灵活的施磷规范已经是可行的。这一结论，再加上通过近端和遥感技术预期增加的数据可用性，为进一步改善养分管理和未来转向循环农业开辟了道路。