This study investigates the trends of precipitation and temperature extremes for the historical observations (1961–1990) and future period (2061–2090) in the Jhelum River Basin. Future trends are estimated by using ensemble mean of three general circulation models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Therefore, statistical downscaling model has been used to downscale the future precipitation and temperature. A total of 15 precipitation and temperature indices were calculated using the RClimdex package. Man-Kendall and Sen’s slope tests were used to detect the trends in climate extreme indices. Overall, the results of study indicate that there were significant changes in precipitation and temperature patterns as well as in the climate extremes in the basin for both observed as well as projected climate. Generally, more warming and increase in precipitation were observed, which increases from RCP4.5 to RCP8.5. For all the stations, increasing trends were found for both precipitation and temperature for twenty-first century at a 95% significance level. The frequency of warm days (TX90p), warm nights (TN90p), and summer days (SU25) showed significant increasing trends, alternatively the number of cold nights (TN10p) and cold days (TX10p) exhibited opposite behaviors. In addition, an increasing trend of warmest day (TXx) and coldest day (TNn) was observed. Our analysis also reveals that the number of very wet days (R90p) and heavy precipitation days (R10 mm) will likely increase in the future. Meanwhile, the Max 1-day (RX1-day) and 5-day (RX5-day) precipitation indices showed increasing trends at most of the stations of basin. The results of the study is of potential benefit for decision-makers to develop basin wide appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures to combat climate change and its consequences.

本研究调查了杰勒姆河流域的历史观测（1961–1990）和未来时期（206–2090）的极端降水和温度趋势。通过使用RCP4.5和RCP8.5下的三种通用循环模型的集合均值来估算未来趋势。因此，已经使用统计缩减模型来缩减未来的降水和温度。使用RClimdex软件包计算出总共15个降水和温度指数。Man-Kendall和Sen的斜度测试用于检测极端气候指数的趋势。总体而言，研究结果表明，无论是观测到的还是预估的气候，流域内的降水和温度模式以及极端气候都有显着变化。通常，观测到更多的变暖和降水增加，从RCP4.5增加到RCP8.5。在所有站中，发现二十一世纪的降水量和温度都呈上升趋势，显着性水平为95％。暖天（TX90p），暖夜（TN90p）和夏季（SU25）的频率显示出明显的增加趋势，或者冷夜（TN10p）和冷天（TX10p）的数量呈现相反的行为。另外，观察到最暖日（TXx）和最冷日（TNn）的增加趋势。我们的分析还显示，未来极潮湿天数（R90p）和强降水天数（R10 mm）的数量可能会增加。同时，在大多数流域站，最大1天（RX1天）和5天（RX5天）降水指数显示出增加的趋势。