In this study focused on France, we explore the uncertainties related to choices made while building a source model for hazard assessment and we quantify the impact on probabilistic hazard estimates. Earthquake recurrence models are initially built from the French Seismic CATalog (FCAT, Manchuel et al. in Bull Earthq Eng, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0236-1). We set up a logic tree that includes two alternative seismogenic source models (ESHM13 and Baize et al. in Bull Soc Géol Fr 184(3):225–259, 2013), two versions of FCAT catalog, two alternative declustering algorithms, and three alternative minimum magnitudes for earthquake recurrence modeling. We calculate the hazard for six cities (i.e. Nantes, Lourdes, Clermont-Ferrand, Briançon, Nice and Strasbourg) that are located in source zones with a minimum amount of data to work with. Results are displayed for the PGA and spectral period 0.2 s, at return periods 475 and 5000 years. Exploration of the logic tree shows that the parameters with the most impact on hazard results are the minimum magnitude used in the recurrence modeling (up to 31%) and the selection of the seismogenic source model (up to 30%). We also use the SHARE European Earthquake Catalog (SHEEC, Woessner et al. in Bull Earthquake Eng, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9795-1) to build earthquake recurrence models and compare hazard values obtained with the FCAT logic tree. Comparisons are limited because of the low number of events available in some sources in SHEEC; however, results show that, depending on the site considered, the earthquake catalog selection can also strongly impact the hazard estimates (up to 50%). The FCAT logic tree is combined with four ground-motion models (Bindi et al. in Bull Earthq Eng 12(1):391–430, 2014; Boore et al. in Earthq Spectra 30(3):1057–1085, 2014; Cauzzi et al. in Bull Earthq Eng 13(6):1587–1612, 2015. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-014-9685-y; Drouet and Cotton in Bull Seismol Soc Am 105(4):1883–1902, 2015) to account for the epistemic uncertainty on the prediction of ground-motion. Exploration of the logic tree shows that the contribution of ground-motion model uncertainties can be larger than, equivalent to, or lower than the contribution of the source-model uncertainties to the overall hazard variability. Which component controls overall uncertainty depends on the site, spectral period and return period. Finally, exploring the logic tree provides a distribution for the ratios between hazard levels at 5000 and 475 years return periods, revealing that the ratios only slightly depend on source-model uncertainties, vary strongly from site to site, and can take values between 3 and 5, which is significantly higher than what is commonly assumed in the engineering community.

中文翻译：

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源和地面运动模型选择对法国6个地点的概率地震灾害水平的影响

在针对法国的这项研究中，我们在建立危害评估源模型的过程中探索了与选择有关的不确定性，并量化了对概率危害估计的影响。地震复发模型最初是根据法国地震CATalog建立的（FCAT，Manchuel等人在Bull Earthq Eng，2018年。https：//doi.org/10.1007/s10518-017-0236-1）。我们建立了一个逻辑树，其中包括两个替代震源模型（ESHM13和Baize等人，Bull SocGéolFr 184（3）：225–259，2013），两个FCAT目录版本，两个替代解聚算法和三个地震复发模型的替代最小震级。我们计算了位于源区中的六个城市（即南特，卢尔德，克莱蒙·费朗，布莱昂，尼斯和斯特拉斯堡）的危害，需要处理的数据量最少。显示PGA和光谱周期0.2 s的结果，返回周期为475和5000年。对逻辑树的探索表明，对危害结果影响最大的参数是递归建模中使用的最小量级（最高31％）和震源模型的选择（最高30％）。我们还使用SHARE欧洲地震目录（SHEEC，Woessner等人，Bull Earthquake Eng，2015年。https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-015-9795-1）建立地震复发模型并比较获得的危险值与FCAT逻辑树。由于SHEEC中某些来源中可用的事件数量少，因此比较受到限制；但是，结果表明，根据所考虑的地点而定，地震目录的选择也会对灾害估计产生极大的影响（高达50％）。FCAT逻辑树与四个地面运动模型结合在一起（Bindi等人，Bull Earthq Eng 12（1）：391–430，2014； Boore等人，Earthq Spectra 30（3）：1057–1085，2014； Bordi等人，Earthq Spectra 30（3）：1057–1085，2014）。 Cauzzi等人在Bull Earthq Eng 13（6）：1587-1612，2015. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10518-014-9685-y; Drouet and Cotton in Bull Seismol Soc Am 105（4）： 1883–1902，2015）解释了地面运动预测的认知不确定性。对逻辑树的探索表明，地面运动模型不确定性的贡献可以大于，等于或低于源模型不确定性对整体危害可变性的贡献。哪个组件控制总体不确定性取决于站点，频谱周期和返回周期。最后，