Abstract In this work, a novel approach has been presented to predict real-time maximum power, conversion efficiency, daily, monthly and yearly energy production of photovoltaic modules operating outdoor from dawning to evening under changing conditions of illumination and temperature. One-diode electronic circuit with five irradiance and temperature dependent model-parameters has been used to describe the photovoltaic module. Temporal monitoring of temperature and module photovoltaic metrics, during one reference day, has been used to solve the system of non-linear equations corresponding to key-points of current-voltage curve to determine real-time values of model-parameters. New analytical formulas have been proposed to reproduce variations of daytime values of model-parameters as functions of effective irradiance and module temperature for all days of the year. To evaluate accuracy of our predictive approach, meteorological and photovoltaic data recorded by NREL researchers for four PV modules coming from different technologies, which were operating outdoor at Cocoa (Florida) and Eugene (Oregon) during one year have been used. Predicted values of current-voltage characteristics, maximum power and efficiency at arbitrary times in arbitrary days have been compared to respective experimental values. NRMSE and NE have also been calculated to find that these normalized indicators have not exceeded 3%.

中文翻译：

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用于确定模型参数的时间变化以预测在任意条件下户外运行的光伏组件的最大功率和效率的数值方法和新的分析模型

摘要 在这项工作中，提出了一种新颖的方法来预测在光照和温度变化的条件下从黎明到晚上在户外运行的光伏组件的实时最大功率、转换效率、每日、每月和每年的能量生产。具有五个辐照度和温度相关模型参数的单二极管电子电路已用于描述光伏模块。温度和模块光伏指标的时间监测，在一个参考日，已被用于求解对应于电流-电压曲线关键点的非线性方程组，以确定模型参数的实时值。已经提出了新的分析公式来重现模型参数白天值的变化，作为一年中所有日子的有效辐照度和模块温度的函数。为了评估我们的预测方法的准确性，NREL 研究人员记录了来自不同技术的四个光伏组件的气象和光伏数据，这些组件在一年内在可可（佛罗里达州）和尤金（俄勒冈州）户外运行。将任意天任意时间的电流-电压特性、最大功率和效率的预测值与各自的实验值进行比较。还计算了 NRMSE 和 NE，发现这些归一化指标没有超过 3%。NREL 研究人员记录的来自不同技术的四种光伏组件的气象和光伏数据已被使用，这些光伏组件在一年内在可可（佛罗里达州）和尤金（俄勒冈州）户外运行。将任意天任意时间的电流-电压特性、最大功率和效率的预测值与各自的实验值进行比较。还计算了 NRMSE 和 NE，发现这些归一化指标没有超过 3%。NREL 研究人员记录的来自不同技术的四种光伏组件的气象和光伏数据已被使用，这些组件在可可（佛罗里达州）和尤金（俄勒冈州）户外运行一年。将任意天任意时间的电流-电压特性、最大功率和效率的预测值与各自的实验值进行比较。还计算了 NRMSE 和 NE，发现这些归一化指标没有超过 3%。