Abstract This article investigates the effect of digitalization on energy consumption. Using an analytical model, we investigate four effects: (1) direct effects from the production, usage and disposal of information and communication technologies (ICT), (2) energy efficiency increases from digitalization, (3) economic growth from increases in labor and energy productivities and (4) sectoral change/tertiarization from the rise of ICT services. The analysis combines empirical and theoretical findings from debates on decoupling energy consumption from economic growth and from debates on green IT and ICT for sustainability. Our main results: Effects 1 and 3 tend to increase energy consumption. Effects 2 and 4 tend to decrease it. Furthermore, our analysis suggests that the two increasing effects prevail so that, overall, digitalization increases energy consumption. These results can be explained by four insights from ecological economics: (a) physical capital and energy are complements in the ICT sector, (b) increases in energy efficiency lead to rebound effects, (c) ICT cannot solve the difficulty of decoupling economic growth from exergy, (d) ICT services are relatively energy intensive and come on top of former production. In future, digitalization can only boost sustainability when it fosters effects 2 and 4 without promoting effects 1 and 3.

中文翻译：

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数字化和能源消耗。ICT 会减少能源需求吗？

摘要 本文研究了数字化对能源消耗的影响。我们使用分析模型研究了四种影响：(1) 信息和通信技术 (ICT) 的生产、使用和处置的直接影响，(2) 数字化带来的能源效率提高，(3) 劳动力增加带来的经济增长和能源生产力和 (4) ICT 服务兴起带来的部门变革/第三化。该分析结合了关于将能源消耗与经济增长脱钩的辩论以及关于绿色 IT 和 ICT 促进可持续性的辩论的实证和理论发现。我们的主要结果：效果 1 和 3 往往会增加能源消耗。效果 2 和 4 倾向于减少它。此外，我们的分析表明，这两种增加的影响占主导地位，因此，总体而言，数字化增加了能源消耗。这些结果可以用生态经济学的四个见解来解释：(a) 物质资本和能源在 ICT 部门是互补的，(b) 能源效率的提高导致反弹效应，(c) ICT 无法解决经济增长脱钩的困难从火用方面来看，(d) ICT 服务是相对能源密集型的，并且位于之前的生产之上。未来，数字化只有在促进效果 2 和效果 4 而不促进效果 1 和 3 时才能促进可持续性。(d) ICT 服务是相对能源密集型的，并排在以前的生产之上。未来，数字化只有在促进效果 2 和效果 4 而不促进效果 1 和 3 时才能促进可持续性。(d) ICT 服务是相对能源密集型的，并排在以前的生产之上。未来，数字化只有在促进效果 2 和效果 4 而不促进效果 1 和 3 时才能促进可持续性。