Different ways of calculating mortality during epidemics have yielded very different results, particularly during the current COVID-19 pandemic. For example, the ‘CFR’ has been interchangeably called the case fatality ratio, case fatality rate, and case fatality risk, often without standard mathematical definitions. The most commonly used CFR is the case fatality ratio , typically constructed using the estimated number of deaths to date divided by the estimated total number of confirmed infected cases to date. How does this CFR relate to an infected individual’s probability of death? To explore such issues, we formulate both a survival probability model and an associated infection duration-dependent SIR model to define individual- and population-based estimates of dynamic mortality measures to show that neither of these are directly represented by the case fatality ratio. The key parameters that affect the dynamics of different mortality estimates are the incubation period...

中文翻译：

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为什么病死率可能会产生误导：基于个人和人群的死亡率估计以及影响它们的因素。

流行病期间计算死亡率的不同方法产生了截然不同的结果，尤其是在当前的 COVID-19 大流行期间。例如，“CFR”可以互换地称为病死率、病死率和病死风险，通常没有标准的数学定义。最常用的病死率是病死率，通常使用迄今为止估计的死亡人数除以迄今为止估计的确诊感染病例总数来构建。该病死率与受感染个体的死亡概率有何关系？为了探索这些问题，我们制定了生存概率模型和相关的感染持续时间相关的 SIR 模型，以定义基于个体和人群的动态死亡率测量估计值，以表明这些都不是由病死率直接代表的。影响不同死亡率估计动态的关键参数是潜伏期……