Abstract In order to overcome the disadvantages of traditional deterministic models, a probabilistic bond strength model of reinforcement bar in concrete was presented. According to the partly cracked thick-walled cylinder model, a deterministic bond strength model of reinforcement bar in concrete was developed first by taking into account the influences of various important factors. Then the analytical expression of probabilistic bond strength model of reinforcement bar in concrete was derived by taking into consideration both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. Subsequently, a probabilistic bond strength model of reinforcement bar in concrete was proposed by determining the statistical characteristics of probabilistic model parameters based on the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method and the Bayesian theory. Finally, applicability of the proposed probabilistic model were validated by comparing with 400 sets of experimental data and four typical deterministic bond strength models. Analysis shows that the probabilistic model provides efficient approaches to describe the probabilistic characteristics of bond strength and to calibrate traditional deterministic bond strength models.

中文翻译：

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混凝土中钢筋的概率结合强度模型

摘要 为了克服传统确定性模型的不足，提出了一种混凝土中钢筋概率结合强度模型。根据部分开裂的厚壁圆柱体模型，考虑各种重要因素的影响，首先建立了混凝土中钢筋的确定性结合强度模型。然后综合考虑随机不确定性和认知不确定性，推导出混凝土中钢筋概率结合强度模型的解析表达式。随后，基于马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗方法和贝叶斯理论，通过确定概率模型参数的统计特征，提出了混凝土中钢筋概率结合强度模型。最后，通过与 400 组实验数据和四种典型的确定性键强度模型进行比较，验证了所提出的概率模型的适用性。分析表明，概率模型提供了描述键强度概率特征和校准传统确定性键强度模型的有效方法。