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Modeling invasive species risk from established populations: Insights for management and conservation
Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation ( IF 4.0 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-23 , DOI: 10.1016/j.pecon.2020.06.001
Javier M. Cordier , Rafael Loyola , Octavio Rojas-Soto , Javier Nori

Ecologists commonly use ecological niche models (ENMs) to undertake invasive species risk assessments; however, knowledge shortfalls introduce bias in these models and increase uncertainty while addressing questions in biogeography. Therefore, our objective was to investigate how the lack of information related to population viability impairs invasive species risk assessments. We built ENMs for the invasive slider turtle (Trachemys scripta) and compared the native and invaded portions of its niches. Both analyses were generated based on two approaches: a conservative one, which excluded occurrence records where the establishment of invasive populations was not confirmed; and a non-conservative one, which encompassed all occurrence records. Under the conservative approach, the niche similarity test revealed that the similitude between native and invasive populations was not different than the expected by chance. Conversely, under the non-conservative approach, the test revealed that native and invasive populations use a similar ecological niche, despite that the occupied portion of the species’ niche during the invasion was quite larger than the native one. In fact, non-conservative models projected wider areas with high risk of invasion that were not detected by the conservative approach. While models’ outcomes were markedly different, both provide valuable information in terms of evolution and conservation. We found that information about population viability is really valuable and should be incorporated in risk assessment, invasive records without this information should not be discarded under any point of view. Finally, we discussed the best way to consider this kind of information to assess the management of invasive species.



中文翻译:

建立既定种群的入侵物种风险建模:管理和保护的见解

生态学家通常使用生态位模型(ENM)进行入侵物种风险评估。但是,知识短缺在这些模型中引入了偏差,并在解决生物地理学问题时增加了不确定性。因此,我们的目标是研究与种群生存力相关的信息不足如何损害入侵物种风险评估。我们为侵入性乌龟(Trachemys scripta),并比较了其利基市场的原生和入侵部分。两种分析都是基于两种方法生成的:一种保守的方法,该方法排除了未确认入侵种群建立的发生记录;另一种是非保守的,涵盖了所有的发生记录。在保守的方法下,利基相似性测试表明,原生种群和入侵种群之间的相似性与偶然的预期没有差异。相反,在非保守方法下,该测试表明,尽管入侵过程中物种的生态位被占据的比例比本地物种大得多,但原生和入侵种群使用的生态位相似。事实上,非保守模型预测,较宽泛的区域具有较高的入侵风险,而保守方法无法发现这些区域。尽管模型的结果明显不同,但两者在进化和保护方面都提供了有价值的信息。我们发现有关人口生存力的信息确实很有价值,应将其纳入风险评估中,任何角度都不应丢弃没有此信息的侵入性记录。最后,我们讨论了考虑此类信息以评估入侵物种管理的最佳方法。没有任何信息的侵入性记录,无论从任何角度看都不应丢弃。最后,我们讨论了考虑此类信息以评估入侵物种管理的最佳方法。没有任何信息的侵入性记录,无论从任何角度看都不应丢弃。最后,我们讨论了考虑此类信息以评估入侵物种管理的最佳方法。

更新日期:2020-06-23
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