Abstract The long-term management of natural capital is essential for the stable and resilient flow of ecosystem services for future generations facing climatic uncertainty. Understanding its resilience to extreme natural events, using biological principles, and integrating them into more holistic systems-wide modelling techniques is crucial to evaluate and design the wider economic impacts from alternative management interventions. Here we developed a probabilistic and system-wide bio-economic model to measure extreme economic impacts from natural events using the financial concept of Value at Risk. We have applied the new extreme economic impact metric to measure the economy-wide impact from the disruption of mountain-biking recreational services in the Whakarewarewa peri-urban forest in Rotorua, New Zealand from a potential windthrow event. We identified that extreme natural events, such as windthrows, could exert a substantial impact on the urban forest-dependent regional economy. This impact could potentially be intensified by the CO2 forest fertilization effects predicted under future climate scenarios and by adopting low-intensity silvicultural regimes currently rewarded by national climate change mitigation policies. Some of the insights from this study could be the precursors to develop robust adaptation strategies using robust decision-making techniques considering inclusive environmental-economic accounting frameworks.

中文翻译：

---

自然资本暴露于气候变化和极端自然事件的风险价值：新西兰风灾和森林娱乐服务的案例

摘要 自然资本的长期管理对于面临气候不确定性的后代的生态系统服务的稳定和弹性流动至关重要。了解其对极端自然事件的恢复能力，使用生物学原理，并将其整合到更全面的全系统建模技术中，对于评估和设计替代管理干预措施的更广泛经济影响至关重要。在这里，我们开发了一个概率性和系统范围的生物经济模型，使用风险价值的金融概念来衡量自然事件对极端经济的影响。我们应用了新的极端经济影响指标来衡量新西兰罗托鲁瓦 Whakarewarewa 城郊森林的山地自行车娱乐服务因潜在风抛事件中断对整个经济的影响。我们发现极端自然事件，如风抛，可能对依赖城市森林的区域经济产生重大影响。在未来气候情景下预测的二氧化碳森林施肥效应以及采用目前由国家气候变化减缓政策奖励的低强度造林制度可能会加剧这种影响。这项研究的一些见解可能是使用考虑包容性环境经济核算框架的稳健决策技术制定稳健适应战略的先驱。在未来气候情景下预测的二氧化碳森林施肥效应以及采用目前由国家气候变化减缓政策奖励的低强度造林制度可能会加剧这种影响。这项研究的一些见解可能是使用考虑包容性环境经济核算框架的稳健决策技术制定稳健适应战略的先驱。在未来气候情景下预测的二氧化碳森林施肥效应以及采用目前由国家气候变化减缓政策奖励的低强度造林制度可能会加剧这种影响。这项研究的一些见解可能是使用考虑包容性环境经济核算框架的稳健决策技术制定稳健适应战略的先驱。