Abstract The mechanical reliability of silica-based optical fibers declines especially under the combination of applied stresses and severe chemical environment in service. It is of great concern to assess the mechanical reliability and lifetime based on the short-term accelerate testing and the relevant mechanism. The long-term lifetime prediction of optical fibers is sensitive to the form of kinetic model, yet no fair and common agreement has been reached on the best model. This study proposes a generalized lifetime model to search the best model in an expanded model space and hence can reduce model uncertainty. Following that, a procedure using the maximum likelihood estimation and the likelihood ratio test is conducted to determine the model structure. Furthermore, three sets of static fatigue lifetime data are used to illustrate the validity and superiority of the proposed framework. The result demonstrates that the proposed framework can reduce the uncertainty in model choice and is readily applicable to evaluation of static fatigue lifetime of optical fibers.

中文翻译：

---

用于降低模型不确定性的光纤静态疲劳寿命评估的通用模型

摘要 二氧化硅基光纤的机械可靠性下降，尤其是在外加应力和恶劣的化学环境的共同作用下。基于短期加速测试和相关机制评估机械可靠性和寿命是非常值得关注的。光纤的长期寿命预测对动力学模型的形式很敏感，但尚未就最佳模型达成公平和普遍的共识。本研究提出了一个广义生命周期模型，以在扩展的模型空间中搜索最佳模型，从而减少模型的不确定性。接着，进行使用最大似然估计和似然比检验的过程以确定模型结构。此外，三组静态疲劳寿命数据用于说明所提出框架的有效性和优越性。结果表明，所提出的框架可以减少模型选择的不确定性，并且很容易适用于光纤静态疲劳寿命的评估。