Any assessment of whether or not Saccharum species are native or introduced in New Guinea require an evolutionary (in a geological sense), geophysical and climatological assessment of the island. Like many of the land masses circling the Pacific (in the volcanically active region known as the 'ring of fire') New Guinea is geologically young, with the island in its modern form not pre-dating 2Ma. Novel modelling of the 74ka youngest Toba supereruption indicates a potential extinction level tsunami and loss of habitat. The late Pleistocene megafaunal mass extinction and the last glacial maximum (33-16 ka) are two global effects that would have significantly altered the flora on New Guinea; though the implications of these events on New Guinea have not previously been studied. Even if the genus Saccharum was established on the island during pre-historic times the consequences of Toba and other global climate change events means that it would have been eliminated from New Guinea and would have had to be re-introduced during the period of human colonization. Indeed, given the evolution of Saccharum's immediate ancestors in Africa and Indochina it is most parsimonious to conclude that it was never native to New Guinea, but was introduced by humans relatively recently. Little work has been done on palaeotsunami evidence and ancient tsunami modelling in New Guinea. However, the recent recognition that the Aitape skull (dating to about 6 ka) may have been the victim of a tsunami show that, in the past, tsunami have penetrated significantly (about 10 km in this case) into the interior of the island to have a profound effect on biodiversity. This tsunami would have left the north coast of the island impoverished of plant life for several decades after.

中文翻译：

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新几内亚的地球物理和气候学评估—对糖精起源的启示

对蔗糖物种是否是新几内亚本地生或引进的任何评估都需要对该岛进行进化（从地质意义上），地球物理和气候学评估。就像环绕太平洋的许多陆地（在被称为“火环”的火山活动区）一样，新几内亚在地质上还很年轻，其现代形式的岛屿早于2Ma。新型74ka最年轻的鸟羽喷发模型表明潜在的灭绝级别海啸和栖息地丧失。更新世晚期大型真菌灭绝和最后一次冰川最大灭绝（33-16 ka）是两个全球性影响，它们将大大改变新几内亚的菌群。尽管这些事件对新几内亚的影响尚未得到研究。即使属蔗糖是在史前时期在岛上建立的，其后果是鸟羽和其他全球气候变化事件的影响，这意味着它将在新几内亚被淘汰，并且在人类殖民时期必须重新引入。确实，鉴于蔗糖的进化在非洲和印度支那的直系祖先，最难得出结论的是，它从来都不是新几内亚的人，而是人类在最近才引进的。在新几内亚，关于古海啸证据和古代海啸建模的工作还很少。但是，最近认识到Aitape头骨（约6 ka）可能是海啸的受害者，这表明在过去，海啸已经严重渗透（在这种情况下约为10 km）进入岛内。对生物多样性有深远的影响。这场海啸将使岛的北海岸几十年后的植物生活陷入贫困。