The lack of effective pharmaceutical interventions for SARS-CoV-2 raises the possibility of COVID-19 recurrence. We explore different post-confinement scenarios by using a stochastic modified SEIR (susceptible–exposed–infectious–recovered) model that accounts for the spread of infection during the latent period and also incorporates time-decaying effects due to potential loss of acquired immunity, people’s increasing awareness of social distancing and the use of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Our results suggest that lockdowns should remain in place for at least 60 days to prevent epidemic growth, as well as a potentially larger second wave of SARS-CoV-2 cases occurring within months. The best-case scenario should also gradually incorporate workers in a daily proportion at most 50% higher than during the confinement period. We show that decaying immunity and particularly awareness and behaviour have 99% significant effects on both the current wave of infection and on preventing COVID-19 re-emergence. Social distancing and individual non-pharmaceutical interventions could potentially remove the need for lockdowns.

缺乏有效的SARS-CoV-2药物干预措施，增加了COVID-19复发的可能性。我们使用随机修正的SEIR（易感-接触-传染性-恢复）模型探索不同的禁闭后方案，该模型说明了潜伏期的感染传播情况，并且还结合了由于获得性免疫力的潜在丧失而造成的时间衰减效应。越来越多的人意识到社会距离和使用非药物干预措施。我们的结果表明，锁定应至少保留60天，以防止流行病的增长，以及可能在几个月内发生的第二波SARS-CoV-2病例的更大爆发。最佳情况还应逐渐使工人的日比例比分娩期间高出50％。我们表明，减弱的免疫力，特别是意识和行为，对当前的感染浪潮和防止COVID-19再次出现均具有99％的显着影响。远离社交和个别非药物干预措施可能会消除对锁定的需求。