ABSTRACT We combine satellite imagery, urban growth modelling, groundwater modelling and hydrogeological field expeditions to estimate the potential impacts in 2050 of rapid urbanization and climate change on groundwater in Arusha, Tanzania, and by extension similar areas in Sub-Saharan Africa. Our analysis suggests that a reduction of groundwater recharge by 30–44% will cause groundwater levels to drop by up to 75 m, mainly due to increased evapotranspiration and to an expansion in paved surface. If this scenario becomes reality, we predict that wells will run dry, creating health, social and environmental risks.

中文翻译：

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探索城市化和气候变化对坦桑尼亚阿鲁沙地下水的未来影响

摘要 我们结合卫星图像、城市增长模型、地下水模型和水文地质实地考察，估计 2050 年快速城市化和气候变化对坦桑尼亚阿鲁沙以及撒哈拉以南非洲类似地区地下水的潜在影响。我们的分析表明，地下水补给量减少 30-44% 将导致地下水位下降多达 75 m，这主要是由于蒸散量增加和铺砌表面的扩张。如果这种情况成为现实，我们预测油井将枯竭，从而造成健康、社会和环境风险。