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Probabilistic graphical models for species richness prediction: are current protected areas effective to face climate emergency?
Global Ecology and Conservation ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-22 , DOI: 10.1016/j.gecco.2020.e01162
A.D. Maldonado , A. Valdivielso , A. Rescia , P.A. Aguilera

Climate change has been related to the current loss of global biodiversity. In this paper, the effects of different scenarios of climate change on the distribution of the four classes of terrestrial vertebrate species in Andalusia (Spain) are explored. The goal is to obtain potential climatically suitable areas for each group (amphibians, reptiles, mammals and birds) under each proposed scenario and examine the usefulness of the current static design of protected areas. We propose a methodology to construct habitat suitability models, which are used to predict the expected species richness given each projected scenario of climate change. The relative change of the species richness within National and Natural Parks, remainder of Natura 2000 network and unprotected areas is compared. The results of the study show a broad effect of climate change on the species richness distribution. In general, there is a loss of specific richness and a restricted availability of suitable areas. The protected areas located in higher altitudes maintain the best conditions for the survival of the taxa considered in the proposed climate change scenarios.



中文翻译:

物种丰富度预测的概率图形模型:当前的保护区是否有效应对气候紧急情况?

气候变化与当前全球生物多样性的丧失有关。本文探讨了气候变化的不同情景对安达卢西亚(西班牙)四种陆生脊椎动物物种分布的影响。目标是在每种拟议的方案下,为每类(两栖动物,爬行动物,哺乳动物和鸟类)获得潜在的气候适宜区域,并研究当前静态保护区设计的有用性。我们提出了一种构建栖息地适应性模型的方法,该模型可用于根据每种预期的气候变化情景来预测预期的物种丰富度。比较了国家公园和自然公园,Natura 2000网络其余部分和未保护区域内物种丰富度的相对变化。研究结果表明,气候变化对物种丰富度分布具有广泛的影响。通常,会损失特定的丰富度,而合适区域的可用性有限。在拟议的气候变化情景中,位于较高海拔的保护区为分类单元的生存提供了最佳条件。

更新日期:2020-06-23
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