Abstract We characterize a seller’s optimal presale strategy considering consumers’ preference reversal or inconsistency. We propose a novel way to measure consumer utility based on time preference and develop four presale strategies for maximizing the seller’s revenue. Tested presale stratgies include the single-stage pure presale (SP), single-stage hybrid presale (SH), two-stage pure presale (TP), and two-stage hybrid presale (TH) methods. We use single-stage models as benchmark models. Our theoretical and numerical analyses indicate that in comparison to the benchmark models (SP and SH), the two-stage presale strategies (TP and TH) are more beneficial for the seller in maximizing his revenue. Furthermore, the seller can determine his optimal prepaid deposit proportion under various parameters, including the presale lead time, retail prices, network externalities, salvage value, natural rate of return, consumers’ psychological cost of uncertainty and inventory availability. In particular, the prepaid deposit proportion should be set high when products are sold under pure presale strategies, with a long presale lead time, with limited network externalities, or at a high retail price. Some valuable suggestions regarding ways to mitigate the negative effect of consumers’ time preferences on the seller’s revenue are discussed.

中文翻译：

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考虑消费者偏好逆转或不一致的最优预售策略

摘要 我们在考虑消费者偏好逆转或不一致的情况下描述了卖家的最优预售策略。我们提出了一种基于时间偏好来衡量消费者效用的新方法，并制定了四种预售策略以最大化卖方的收入。经过测试的预售策略包括单阶段纯预售（SP）、单阶段混合预售（SH）、两阶段纯预售（TP）和两阶段混合预售（TH）方法。我们使用单阶段模型作为基准模型。我们的理论和数值分析表明，与基准模型（SP 和 SH）相比，两阶段预售策略（TP 和 TH）更有利于卖方最大化其收入。此外，卖方可以在各种参数下确定他的最佳预付定金比例，包括预售提前期、零售价格、网络外部性、残值、自然收益率、消费者不确定性和库存可用性的心理成本。特别是在纯预售策略、预售周期长、网络外部性有限或零售价格高的情况下，预付定金比例应设置得较高。讨论了一些关于减轻消费者时间偏好对卖方收入的负面影响的有价值的建议。