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Modeling the effects of toxic wastes on population dynamics
Alexandria Engineering Journal ( IF 6.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-21 , DOI: 10.1016/j.aej.2020.05.013
Denis Ndanguza , Angelique Nyirahabinshuti , Consolee Sibosiko

The toxic and hazardous waste have dangerous properties and often cause a harmful effect on human health and the environment. Waste products generated from chemical industries and hospitals are the most classified into hazardous waste. Therefore, we are interested in modeling and analysing a dynamical system where intoxication on the population occurs due to mismanagement of such produced wastes. The model explains the relationship between the density of individuals in a certain area, waste generation and concentration of the toxic. Initially, we simulated synthetic data and estimated parameters using Least Square method. The stability analysis around critical points, bifurcation and sensitivity analysis are carried out and exhibit that once the population is growing, the generated wastes are also increasing and consequently, the concentration of toxic. Numerical model solutions through plots and fitness of the model are presented and interpretation confesses the model as accurate. From results, we recommend that, waste management and limitation in contact of the population with the toxic are the ways to reduce their effects on human beings. To address the waste disposal and synthetic substances, the new trend of green chemistry with 12 principles is the alternative solution. Moreover, to reduce the increase of toxic waste, chlorine is replaced by carbonyl group and make it friendly to the environment, ecosystem and human.



中文翻译:

模拟有毒废物对人口动态的影响

有毒有害废物具有危险特性,经常对人体健康和环境造成有害影响。化学工业和医院产生的废物最容易分类为危险废物。因此,我们有兴趣对动力学系统进行建模和分析,在该动力学系统中,由于对此类产生的废物的管理不当而导致中毒。该模型解释了特定区域内个体密度,废物产生与有毒物质浓度之间的关系。最初,我们使用最小二乘法模拟合成数据和估计参数。进行了关键点附近的稳定性分析,分叉和敏感性分析,结果表明,一旦人口增长,产生的废物也将增加,因此,浓度有毒。提出了通过绘图和模型适应性的数值模型解决方案,并解释了该模型的准确性。从结果来看,我们建议废物管理和限制人群与有毒物质的接触是减少其对人类影响的方法。为了解决废物和合成物质的问题,采用12条原则的绿色化学新趋势是替代解决方案。此外,为了减少有毒废物的增加,氯被羰基取代,使其对环境,生态系统和人类都友好。废物管理以及限制人群与有毒物质的接触是减少其对人类影响的方法。为了解决废物和合成物质的问题,采用12条原则的绿色化学新趋势是替代解决方案。此外,为了减少有毒废物的增加,氯被羰基取代,使其对环境,生态系统和人类都友好。废物管理以及限制人群与有毒物质的接触是减少其对人类影响的方法。为了解决废物和合成物质的问题,采用12条原则的绿色化学新趋势是替代解决方案。此外,为了减少有毒废物的增加,氯被羰基取代,使其对环境,生态系统和人类都友好。

更新日期:2020-06-21
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