The possible future changes in temperature over Nigeria were projected in this study. Using Climate Research Unit (CRU) temperature as the reference data, gain ratio (GR), entropy gain (EG), and symmetrical uncertainty (SU) feature selection methods and a multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) approach were used in selecting the most suitable GCMs for Nigeria from 20 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs). The biases in selected GCMs were corrected using power transformation (PT) method. Multi-model ensembles (MMEs) were generated for the selected GCMs for the different temperature classes’ maximum, average, and minimum for all RCPs. The MMEs were used for the projection of temperatures over the country during 2010–2039, 2040–2069, and 2070–2099. The GCMs HadGEM2-ES, CESM1-CAM5, CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, and MRI-CGCM3 were the best performing in replicating temperature characteristics of the observed temperature in Nigeria. The MME mean projections of bias-corrected (BC) GCMs using PT revealed that there will be an increase in temperature of 4.0 °C at the semi-arid and 5.0 °C at the arid regions during dry and wet seasons respectively under RCP 4.5. In the same regions, the maximum temperature is expected to increase up to 5.5 °C under RCP 8.5 during 2070–2099 in the dry season. In the wet season, temperatures are expected to be higher under RCP 8.5, with an increase of 0.0–4.0 °C in the southern region and 3.0–6.9 °C in the northern region.

这项研究预测了尼日利亚未来气温的可能变化。以气候研究单位（CRU）温度作为参考数据，选择了增益比（GR），熵增益（EG）和对称不确定性（SU）特征选择方法以及多准则决策方法（MCDM） 20个耦合模型比较项目第5阶段（CMIP5）全球气候模型（GCM）中最适合尼日利亚的GCM。使用功率变换（PT）方法校正了选定GCM中的偏差。针对所有RCP的不同温度类别的最大值，平均值和最小值，为选定的GCM生成了多模型合奏（MME）。MME用于预测2010-2039年，2040-2069年和2070-2099年全国的温度。GCM HadGEM2-ES，CESM1-CAM5，CSIRO-Mk3.6.0，MRI-CGCM3和MRI-CGCM3在复制尼日利亚观测温度的温度特征方面表现最佳。使用PT进行的偏校正（BC）GCM的MME平均预测显示，在RCP 4.5下，干季和湿季半干旱地区的温度将分别升高4.0°C，而干旱地区的温度将升高5.0°C。在同一地区，预计在2070-2099年的干旱季节，在RCP 8.5下，最高温度将升高至5.5°C。在RCP 8.5下，预计在雨季温度会更高，南部地区将增加0.0-4.0°C，北部地区将增加3.0-6.9°C。使用PT进行的偏校正（BC）GCM的MME平均预测显示，在RCP 4.5下，干季和湿季半干旱地区的温度将分别升高4.0°C，而干旱地区的温度将升高5.0°C。在同一地区，预计在2070-2099年的干旱季节，在RCP 8.5下，最高温度将升高至5.5°C。在RCP 8.5下，预计在雨季温度会更高，南部地区将增加0.0-4.0°C，北部地区将增加3.0-6.9°C。使用PT进行的偏校正（BC）GCM的MME平均预测显示，在RCP 4.5下，干季和湿季半干旱地区的温度将分别升高4.0°C，而干旱地区的温度将升高5.0°C。在同一地区，预计在2070-2099年的干旱季节，在RCP 8.5下，最高温度将升高至5.5°C。在RCP 8.5下，预计在雨季温度会更高，南部地区将增加0.0-4.0°C，北部地区将增加3.0-6.9°C。