In energy-only electricity markets, the operational reserve demand curve is a scarcity pricing mechanism adopted to address the shortage of reserves and incentivize the generators. It is constructed based on the assumption of the normality of loss of load probability, which is estimated from reserve error data. In this Letter, the historical record of reserve error is collected and analyzed to test the assumption and find the fittest probability distribution. It is found that the normal distribution is generally not as good as other distributions like log-logistic, general gamma, and Weibull. Using a dynamic simulation framework, the installed reserve margins with different distributions are evaluated over a fifty-year period, demonstrating that the choice of distribution could significantly impact the subsequent pricing calculations and therefore the reserve margin in an energy-only electricity market. This work is of potential importance and immediate relevance to system reliability and resource adequacy in power systems.

中文翻译：

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纯能源电力市场负荷概率分布损失对运行备用需求曲线性能的影响

在纯能源电力市场中，运营储备需求曲线是一种稀缺定价机制，用于解决储备短缺问题并激励发电商。它是基于负载概率损失的正态性假设构建的，该假设是从备用误差数据中估计出来的。在这封信中，准备金错误的历史记录被收集和分析，以检验假设并找到最合适的概率分布。发现正态分布通常不如其他分布，如 log-logistic、general gamma 和 Weibull。使用动态模拟框架，在五十年内评估不同分布的已安装储备裕度，证明配电的选择可能会显着影响后续的定价计算，从而影响纯能源电力市场的备用边际。这项工作对电力系统的系统可靠性和资源充足性具有潜在的重要性和直接相关性。