Mathematical modeling of epidemic spreading has been widely adopted to estimate the threats of epidemic diseases (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic) as well as to evaluate epidemic control interventions. The indoor place is considered to be a significant epidemic spreading risk origin, but existing widely-used epidemic spreading models are usually limited for indoor places since the dynamic physical distance changes between people are ignored, and the empirical features of the essential and non-essential travel are not differentiated. In this paper, we introduce a pedestrian-based epidemic spreading model that is capable of modeling indoor transmission risks of diseases during people's social activities. Taking advantage of the before-and-after mobility data from the University of Maryland COVID-19 Impact Analysis Platform, it's found that people tend to spend more time in grocery stores once their travel frequencies are restricted to a low level. In other words, an increase in dwell time could balance the decrease in travel frequencies and satisfy people's demand. Based on the pedestrian-based model and the empirical evidence, combined non-pharmaceutical interventions from different operational levels are evaluated. Numerical simulations show that restrictions on people's travel frequency and open-hours of indoor places may not be universally effective in reducing average infection risks for each pedestrian who visit the place. Entry limitations can be a widely effective alternative, whereas the decision-maker needs to balance the decrease in risky contacts and the increase in queue length outside the place that may impede people from fulfilling their travel needs.

中文翻译：

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在 COVID-19 大流行期间模拟室内级非药物干预：一种基于行人动力学的微观模拟方法

流行病传播的数学模型已被广泛用于估计流行病（即 COVID-19 大流行）的威胁以及评估流行病控制干预措施。室内场所被认为是重要的流行病传播风险来源，但由于忽略了人与人之间的动态物理距离变化，以及本质和非本质的经验特征，现有广泛使用的流行病传播模型通常仅限于室内场所。旅行没有区别。在本文中，我们介绍了一种基于行人的流行病传播模型，该模型能够对人们社交活动期间疾病的室内传播风险进行建模。利用马里兰大学 COVID-19 影响分析平台的前后移动数据，它' s 发现，一旦人们的出行频率被限制在较低水平，人们往往会在杂货店花费更多时间。换言之，停留时间的增加可以平衡出行频率的下降，满足人们的需求。基于基于行人的模型和经验证据，评估了来自不同操作级别的组合非药物干预。数值模拟表明，限制人们的出行频率和室内场所的开放时间可能无法普遍有效地降低每个到访该场所的行人的平均感染风险。进入限制可能是一个广泛有效的替代方案