Abstract

Side right-angle collision (SRC) is the most serious type of side collision accidents, most of which occur at intersections with complex traffic conditions. In this paper, based on the NASS/GES samples, three models (C5.0, CHAID, and CART) are established to identify factors with crucial influences on the severity of SRC accidents. Then, the dual-state decision rules are established to get the cause of accidents by extracting two states of the class variables in the decision tree. The results demonstrate that drunk driving, weather, overspeed, effective speed of head-on vehicles and traffic light equipment are significant factors related to the severity. The study also found that the chances of serious accidents increased with the increasing effective speed of head-on vehicles and decreased when road isolation facilities were installed. And there is a high probability of causing serious accidents in rainy/snowy conditions, and the turning will increase the possibility of serious accidents in windy/foggy conditions.

摘要

侧面直角碰撞（SRC）是最严重的侧面碰撞事故类型，多发生在交通条件复杂的十字路口。在本文中，基于 NASS/GES 样本，建立了三个模型（C5.0、CHAID 和 CART）来识别对 SRC 事故严重程度具有关键影响的因素。然后，通过提取决策树中类变量的两种状态，建立双状态决策规则，得出事故原因。结果表明，酒后驾驶、天气、超速、迎面车辆的有效速度和交通信号灯设备是与严重程度相关的重要因素。研究还发现，严重事故的发生率随着迎面车辆有效速度的增加而增加，而在安装道路隔离设施时则降低。