While probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an explicit methodology for complying with the performance requirements of the Building Code of Australia (BCA) or similar codes, it traditionally focuses only on technical risks of fire safety systems in a building. There are growing concerns that performance-based fire engineering designs underestimate safety risk levels in high-rise residential buildings. Existing fire risk models account for failures of technical systems but ignore human and organizational errors (HOEs) and the complex interactions among these variables. Probabilistic models in other applications, such as offshore platforms and nuclear plants, demonstrate the importance of HOE inclusion in risk models and the resulting impacts on overall risk. This paper proposes a comprehensive technical-human-organizational risk (T-H-O-Risk) methodology to enhance the PRA approach by quantifying human and organizational risks in a probabilistic model using Bayesian Network (BN) analysis of HOEs and System Dynamics (SD) modelling for dynamic characterization of risk variations over time. While risk modelling itself is not novel, the current research develops unique and specific enhancements to existing risk approaches by integrating HOE risks with technical risks in a comprehensive dynamic and probabilistic model for high-rise residential buildings. Three case studies are conducted to demonstrate the application of this comprehensive approach to the designs of various high-rise residential buildings ranging from 18 to 24 storeys. Societal risks are represented in F-N curves. Results show that in general, fire safety designs that do not consider HOEs underestimate overall risks generally by~20%—and can reach up to 42% in an extreme case. Furthermore, risks over time due to HOEs vary by as much as 30% over a 10-year period. A sensitivity analysis indicates that deficient training, poor safety culture and ineffective emergency plans have significant impact on overall risk.

中文翻译：

---

将技术、人员和组织风险纳入高层住宅建筑的动态概率火灾风险模型

虽然概率风险评估 (PRA) 是一种用于遵守澳大利亚建筑规范 (BCA) 或类似规范的性能要求的明确方法，但它传统上只关注建筑物消防安全系统的技术风险。人们越来越担心基于性能的消防工程设计低估了高层住宅建筑的安全风险水平。现有的火灾风险模型考虑了技术系统的故障，但忽略了人为和组织错误 (HOE) 以及这些变量之间复杂的相互作用。其他应用中的概率模型，例如海上平台和核电站，证明了 HOE 包含在风险模型中的重要性以及由此产生的对整体风险的影响。本文提出了一种综合的技术-人力-组织风险 (THO-Risk) 方法，通过使用 HOE 的贝叶斯网络 (BN) 分析和动态系统动力学 (SD) 建模在概率模型中量化人类和组织风险来增强 PRA 方法。风险随时间变化的特征。虽然风险建模本身并不新颖，但当前的研究通过将 HOE 风险与技术风险整合到高层住宅建筑的综合动态和概率模型中，对现有风险方法进行了独特而具体的改进。进行了三个案例研究，以展示这种综合方法在 18 至 24 层的各种高层住宅建筑设计中的应用。社会风险以 FN 曲线表示。结果表明，一般而言，不考虑 HOE 的消防安全设计通常会低估整体风险约 20%，在极端情况下可高达 42%。此外，在 10 年期间，HOE 导致的风险随时间变化高达 30%。敏感性分析表明，培训不足、安全文化差和应急计划无效对整体风险有重大影响。