Motivated by a successful prediction on the peak of solar cycle 24 (81.7, comparable to the observed 81.9, Du in Astrophys. Space Sci. 338:9, 2012 ), based on the logarithmic relationship between the maximum amplitude ( R m $R_{ \mathrm{m}}$ ) of a solar cycle and the preceding minimum a a $aa$ geomagnetic index ( a a min $aa_{\mathrm{min}}$ ), we perform a prediction on the peak of the upcoming cycle 25 using the sunspot number of the new version instead. If the suggested error in a a $aa$ (3 nT) before 1957 is corrected, the correlation between ln R m $\ln R_{\mathrm{m}}$ and ln a a min $\ln aa_{\mathrm{min}}$ ( r = 0.92 $r=0.92$ ) is stronger than that not corrected ( r = 0.86 $r=0.86$ ). Based on this relationship, the peak value of cycle 25 is predicted to be R m ( 25 ) ≃ 151.1 ± 16.9 $R_{\mathrm{m}}(25)\simeq 151.1\pm 16.9$ , about 30% stronger than cycle 24. Employing the ‘Waldmeier effect’ that the rise time of a cycle is well anti-correlated to its amplitude, we estimated the rise time, T a ( 25 ) = 4.3 ± 0.2 ± 0.6 $T_{\mathrm{a}}(25)=4.3\pm 0.2\pm 0.6$ , and the peak time of cycle 25, 2024.1 ± 0.8 $2024.1 \pm 0.8 $ (years), which is during April 2023 and November 2024.

中文翻译：

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太阳活动周期：预测太阳活动周期的高峰 25

基于对太阳活动周期 24（81.7，与观测到的 81.9 相当，Du in Astroys. Space Sci. 338:9, 2012）的成功预测，基于最大振幅之间的对数关系 (R m $R_{ \mathrm{m}}$ ) 和前面的最小值 aa $aa$ 地磁指数 ( aa min $aa_{\mathrm{min}}$ )，我们对即将到来的周期 25 的峰值进行预测新版本的太阳黑子编号。如果修正 1957 年之前 aa $aa$ (3 nT) 的建议误差，则 ln R m $\ln R_{\mathrm{m}}$ 与 ln aa min $\ln aa_{\mathrm{min} 之间的相关性}$ ( r = 0.92 $r=0.92$ ) 强于未修正的 ( r = 0.86 $r=0.86$ )。根据这种关系，第 25 周期的峰值预测为 R m ( 25 ) ≃ 151.1 ± 16.9 $R_{\mathrm{m}}(25)\simeq 151.1\pm 16.9$ ，