Extreme hot days over three global mega‐regions: Historical fidelity and future projection,Atmospheric Science Letters

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Extreme hot days over three global mega‐regions: Historical fidelity and future projection
Atmospheric Science Letters ( IF 2.0 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-18 , DOI: 10.1002/asl.1003
Zhenqi Luo ₁ , Jing Yang ₁ , Miaoni Gao ₂ , Deliang Chen ₃

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Using a downscaled high‐resolution NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX‐GDDP) dataset based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations, this study evaluated and compared extreme hot days (EHDs) over the three mega‐regions [the Eastern United States (EUS), Europe (EU) and Eastern Asia (EA)] during the historical period (1981–2005) against observations, resulting in a subset of models with high skill for the past climatology and trend. The observed EHDs over EU exhibit the largest absolute amount and the most significant increases in frequency (4.0 days·decade⁻¹), intensity (0.22°C·decade⁻¹) and extent (8.4°C·days·ecade⁻¹), while no significant trend over EUS is found. Compared with the observation, the largest bias in NEX‐GDDP is the remarkably overestimated increase in the trend over EUS. In the RCP8.5 projection using six models with relatively high fidelity, the increase of EHDs is evidently enhanced during 2030–2054 over the three regions, particularly EUS. The projected trend of EHDs over EUS could be undetermined because of the modelling biases in aerosol effects and internal variation, which is worthy of further investigation in CMIP6.

中文翻译：

三个全球大区域的极端炎热天气：历史保真度和未来预测

使用基于耦合模型比对项目第5阶段（CMIP5）模拟的缩减规模的NASA地球交换全球每日缩减规模预估（NEX-GDDP）数据集，本研究评估并比较了三个巨型区域的极端高温（EHD）[ [EUS]，欧洲（EU）和东亚（EA）]在历史时期（1981-2005年）中与观测值相对应，从而产生了一组具有较高的过去气候和趋势技能的模型。在EU所观察到的显示出EHDs最大绝对量和在频率最显著增加（4.0天·十年^-1），强度（0.22°C·十年^-1）和程度（8.4°C·天·ecade ^-1），而未发现超过EUS的明显趋势。与观察结果相比，NEX-GDDP的最大偏差是EUS趋势显着高估。在使用具有较高保真度的六个模型的RCP8.5投影中，EHD的增加在2030年至2044年期间在这三个区域，特别是EUS上明显增强了。由于气溶胶效应和内部变化的建模偏差，EHD超过EUS的预测趋势可能无法确定，这值得在CMIP6中进一步研究。

更新日期：2020-06-18

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