Abstract This paper makes a case for the propagation of relevant uncertainties in prediction of the seismic response of reinforced concrete components. Conventional probabilistic seismic assessment studies only consider parameter uncertainty and model error as the dominant forms of uncertainty in a component’s capacity. In this paper, firstly, experimental evidences of failure mode variability in nominally identical specimens are presented. Furthermore, a simple approach to account for aleatory uncertainty due to variability in failure mode is presented. Although this paper is focused on reinforced concrete components, the concept of failure mode variability can be applied to components of other materials as well. The paper suggests that failure mode uncertainty needs to be adequately treated in component fragility functions as well as in probabilistic assessment of global collapse capacity.

中文翻译：

---

将失效模式不确定性纳入 RC 组件的概率评估

摘要 本文举例说明了钢筋混凝土构件地震响应预测中相关不确定性的传播。传统的概率地震评估研究仅将参数不确定性和模型误差视为组件容量不确定性的主要形式。在本文中，首先，提出了名义上相同的试样中失效模式可变性的实验证据。此外，还提出了一种简单的方法来解释由于故障模式的可变性引起的偶然不确定性。尽管本文侧重于钢筋混凝土组件，但失效模式可变性的概念也可以应用于其他材料的组件。