Protected areas represent an important management tool for biological conservation. However, their benefits are often undermined by a limited ability to ensure effective compliance outcomes. Recent studies reveal that poaching exhibits both spatial and temporal characteristics similar to those observed in traditional forms of crime. The current study examines illegal recreational fishing data from the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) in Australia to identify the presence of predictive spatio-temporal (near-repeat) patterns of poaching. The findings reveal near-repeat poaching chains up to 9000 m in the first seven days of an initial poaching event, which diminish to <1000 m in the second week. Near-repeat chains were also evident for three consecutive weekends up to 2000 m from initiation. Finally, all near-repeat hotspots were located within broader poaching hotspots, revealing the temporal stability of illegal recreational fishing in the GBRMP. The identification of near-repeat patterns holds important implications for the understanding of poaching and, as a consequence, provides managers with a potentially powerful tool for predicting risk and allocating resources. We discuss the implications for management of our findings through a situational crime prevention framework.

中文翻译：

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偷猎风险的时空模式：使用近似重复假设为海洋保护区的合规执法提供信息

保护区是生物保护的重要管理工具。然而，它们的好处往往因确保有效合规结果的能力有限而受到削弱。最近的研究表明，偷猎表现出与在传统犯罪形式中观察到的相似的空间和时间特征。当前的研究检查了来自澳大利亚大堡礁海洋公园 (GBRMP) 的非法休闲捕鱼数据，以确定是否存在可预测的时空（近重复）偷猎模式。调查结果显示，在最初的偷猎事件的前 7 天内，近乎重复的偷猎链长达 9000 米，在第二周减少到 <1000 米。从开始到 2000 米的连续三个周末，近重复链也很明显。最后，所有近重复的热点都位于更广泛的偷猎热点内，揭示了 GBRMP 中非法休闲捕鱼的时间稳定性。识别近乎重复的模式对于理解偷猎具有重要意义，因此为管理者提供了一种潜在的强大工具来预测风险和分配资源。我们通过情景犯罪预防框架讨论了对我们调查结果管理的影响。