The European grapevine moth, Lobesia botrana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), is a pest that has great potential to cause damage to vineyards. Considering that L. botrana is one of the major grapevine pests globally, it is essential to analyze the risk of its introduction and determine places with higher potential for the establishment of this pest. In this study, we highlighted the most prone regions in the world for the occurrence of L. botrana and its main host, Vitis vinifera, based on the bioclimatic and occurrence region for the pest and the crop, using ecological niche modeling with the MaxEnt algorithm. A survey was also made of the location of 3700 airports around the world, to emphasize the possible influx of people and material carrying the pest in different countries. The climatic variables that most influenced the establishment of L. botrana were annual average temperature, annual mean precipitation, and annual temperature variation. The regions with the greatest possibility of the occurrence of both species (L. botrana and V. vinifera) were those with average annual temperatures close to 13 °C, a mean annual precipitation between 600 and 700 mm, an annual temperature variation of approximately 28 °C, an average daily temperature range of 10 °C, and precipitation of approximately 20 mm in the coldest month. These characteristics are found in almost all vineyard regions globally. This study allowed us to determine the relationship between the environmental preferences of L. botrana and V. vinifera, making it possible to choose locations to focus on combatting the pest and implementing preventive actions.

中文翻译：

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在合适的地区为葡萄提供引入波希米亚病的风险

欧洲的葡萄蛾Lobesia botrana（鳞翅目：Tortricidae）是一种有害生物，极有可能对葡萄园造成破坏。考虑到Botrana乳杆菌是全球主要的葡萄害虫之一，因此必须分析其引入的风险，并确定具有较高潜力的这种害虫的定植地点。在这项研究中，我们着重介绍了世界上最易发生Botrana乳杆菌及其主要寄主Vitis vinifera的地区，根据有害生物和农作物的生物气候和发生区域，使用具有MaxEnt算法的生态位建模。还对全球3700个机场的位置进行了调查，以强调携带有害生物的人员和材料可能流入不同国家。影响Botrana的建立的气候变量是年平均温度，年平均降水量和年温度变化。两种物种（L. botrana和V. vinifera）发生可能性最大的区域）是那些年平均温度接近13°C，年平均降水量在600至700 mm之间，年温度变化约为28°C，日平均温度范围为10°C，降水量约为20 mm的那些。最冷的月份。这些特性在全球几乎所有葡萄园地区都可以找到。这项研究使我们能够确定L. botrana和V. vinifera的环境偏好之间的关系，从而可以选择重点关注害虫和采取预防措施的地点。