Abstract Intensification and poleward expansion of upwelling-favourable winds have been predicted as a response to anthropogenic global climate change and have recently been documented in most Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems of the world. To identify how these processes are impacting nearshore oceanographic habitats and, especially, long-term trends of primary productivity in the Humboldt Upwelling Ecosystem (HUE), we analysed time series of sea level pressure, wind stress, sea surface and atmospheric surface temperatures, and Chlorophyll-a, as a proxy for primary productivity, along 26°–36° S. Major artisanal and industrial fisheries are supported by phytoplankton productivity in this region and, therefore, identification of long-term trends and their spatial variability is critical for our ability to adapt to and to mitigate the effects of global climate change. We show that climate-induced trends in primary productivity are highly heterogeneous across the region. On the one hand, the well-documented poleward migration of the South Pacific Anticyclone (SPA) has led to decreased spring upwelling winds in the region between ca. 30° and 34° S, and to their intensification to the south. Decreased winds have produced slight increases in sea surface temperature and a pronounced and meridionally extensive decrease in surface Chlorophyll-a in this region of central Chile. To the north of 30° S, significant increases in upwelling winds, decreased SST, and enhanced chlorophyll-a concentration are observed in the nearshore. We show that this increase in upwelling-driven coastal productivity is probably produced by the increased land-sea pressure gradients (Bakun's effect) that have occurred over the past two decades north of 30° S. Thus, climate drivers along the HUE are inducing contrasting trends in oceanographic conditions and primary productivity, which can have far-reaching consequences for coastal pelagic and benthic ecosystems and lead to geographic displacements of the major fisheries.

中文翻译：

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太平洋反气旋迁移和洪堡上升流生态系统中的巴昆效应导致过去二十年沿海海洋生产力的空间变化

摘要 有利于上升流的风的增强和向极地扩展已被预测为对人为全球气候变化的响应，并且最近在世界上大多数东部边界上升流生态系统中都有记录。为了确定这些过程如何影响近岸海洋栖息地，尤其是洪堡上升流生态系统 (HUE) 初级生产力的长期趋势，我们分析了海平面压力、风应力、海面和大气表面温度的时间序列，并叶绿素-a 作为初级生产力的代表，位于南纬 26°–36°。该地区的主要手工和工业渔业得到浮游植物生产力的支持，因此，确定长期趋势及其空间变异性对于我们适应和减轻全球气候变化影响的能力至关重要。我们表明，气候引起的初级生产力趋势在整个地区是高度异质的。一方面，有据可查的南太平洋反气旋（SPA）向极地迁移导致该地区春季上升风减少。30° 和 34° S，并向南加强。在智利中部的这个地区，风力减弱导致海面温度略有上升，海面叶绿素-a 显着和经向广泛下降。在 30° S 以北，在近岸观察到上升风显着增加、海温降低和叶绿素-a 浓度增加。