This study is aimed at testing Mechanical earth modeling (MEM) and Sand onset production prediction (SOP) models using well log and core data to estimate the mechanical properties of the rock, in-situ stresses and the critical conditions at which the rock failure may occur. New numerical models were developed to predict the onset of sand production for Well X. The outputs from MEM were coupled with the Mohr Coulomb failure criterion to calculate the critical wellbore pressure of the well and consequently the depth of the rock at which failure may occur. The results showed that at depth of 1061.68–1098.10 m, the calculated critical wellbore pressures were negatives, which reveal low possibility of sand production. However, at a depth of 1098.25–2230.89 m, the calculated critical wellbore pressures were positives. In this depth range, there was high possibility of rock failure. In conclusion, based on the findings, Well X may produce sand at depth deeper than 1100 m. Therefore, mitigation and preventive actions should be planned for Well X to handle and manage the possible sand production from the identified interval.

中文翻译：

---

马来盆地X井的机械地球模拟和起砂生产预测

这项研究旨在使用测井和岩心数据测试机械地球模型（MEM）和起砂生产预测（SOP）模型，以评估岩石的力学性能，原地应力以及可能导致岩石破坏的临界条件发生。开发了新的数值模型来预测X井的出砂开始。MEM的输出与Mohr Coulomb破坏准则相结合，以计算井的临界井眼压力，从而计算出可能发生破坏的岩石深度。结果表明，在1061.68-1098.10 m的深度处，计算出的临界井眼压力为负值，这表明出砂的可能性很小。但是，在1098.25–2230.89 m的深度处，计算出的临界井眼压力为正值。在这个深度范围内 发生岩石破裂的可能性很高。总之，根据这些发现，X井可能会产生深于1100 m的沙子。因此，应该为X井计划缓解和预防措施，以处理和管理从确定的时间间隔开始的可能的出砂。