Although 39,000 individuals die annually from gunshots in the US, research examining the effects of laws designed to reduce these deaths has sometimes produced inconclusive or contradictory findings. We evaluated the effects on total firearm-related deaths of three classes of gun laws: child access prevention (CAP), right-to-carry (RTC), and stand your ground (SYG) laws. The analyses exploit changes in these state-level policies from 1970 to 2016, using Bayesian methods and a modeling approach that addresses several methodological limitations of prior gun policy evaluations. CAP laws showed the strongest evidence of an association with firearm-related death rate, with a probability of 0.97 that the death rate declined at 6 y after implementation. In contrast, the probability of being associated with an increase in firearm-related deaths was 0.87 for RTC laws and 0.77 for SYG laws. The joint effects of these laws indicate that the restrictive gun policy regime (having a CAP law without an RTC or SYG law) has a 0.98 probability of being associated with a reduction in firearm-related deaths relative to the permissive policy regime. This estimated effect corresponds to an 11% reduction in firearm-related deaths relative to the permissive legal regime. Our findings suggest that a small but meaningful decrease in firearm-related deaths may be associated with the implementation of more restrictive gun policies.

尽管在美国每年有39,000人死于枪击事件，但研究旨在减少这些死亡的法律效力的研究有时得出结论性或矛盾性的结论。我们评估了三类枪支法律对总枪支相关死亡的影响：防止儿童进入（CAP），携带权（RTC）和立足（SYG）法律。这些分析利用贝叶斯方法和一种建模方法解决了1970年至2016年这些州级政策的变化，该方法解决了先前枪支政策评估的几种方法学局限性。CAP法显示出与枪支相关死亡率相关的最有力证据，实施后6年死亡率下降的概率为0.97。相反，与枪支相关死亡人数增加相关的概率为0。RTC法则为87，SYG法则为0.77。这些法律的共同作用表明，相对于允许的政策制度，限制性的枪支政策制度（具有CAP法，而没有RTC或SYG法）与减少与枪支有关的死亡相关的概率为0.98。与允许的法律制度相比，这种估计的效果相当于与枪支相关的死亡人数减少了11％。我们的研究结果表明，枪支相关死亡人数的少量但有意义的减少可能与实施限制性更强的枪支政策有关。与允许的法律制度相比，这种估计的效果相当于与枪支相关的死亡人数减少了11％。我们的研究结果表明，枪支相关死亡人数的少量但有意义的减少可能与实施限制性更强的枪支政策有关。与允许的法律制度相比，这种估计的效果相当于与枪支相关的死亡人数减少了11％。我们的研究结果表明，枪支相关死亡人数的少量但有意义的减少可能与实施限制性更强的枪支政策有关。