Occupancy-derived thermal affinities reflect known physiological thermal limits of marine species.,Ecology and Evolution

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Occupancy-derived thermal affinities reflect known physiological thermal limits of marine species.
Ecology and Evolution ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-06-15 , DOI: 10.1002/ece3.6407
Thomas J Webb ₁ , Aaron Lines ₁ , Leigh M Howarth _{1,

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Affiliation

Predicting how species will respond to increased environmental temperatures is key to understanding the ecological consequences of global change. The physiological tolerances of a species define its thermal limits, while its thermal affinity is a summary of the environmental temperatures at the localities at which it actually occurs. Experimentally derived thermal limits are known to be related to observed latitudinal ranges in marine species, but accurate range maps from which to derive latitudinal ranges are lacking for many marine species. An alternative approach is to combine widely available data on global occurrences with gridded global temperature datasets to derive measures of species‐level “thermal affinity”—that is, measures of the central tendency, variation, and upper and lower bounds of the environmental temperatures at the locations at which a species has been recorded to occur. Here, we test the extent to which such occupancy‐derived measures of thermal affinity are related to the known thermal limits of marine species using data on 533 marine species from 24 taxonomic classes and with experimentally derived critical upper temperatures spanning 2–44.5°C. We show that thermal affinity estimates are consistently and positively related to the physiological tolerances of marine species, despite gaps and biases in the source data. Our method allows thermal affinity measures to be rapidly and repeatably estimated for many thousands more marine species, substantially expanding the potential to assess vulnerability of marine communities to warming seas.

中文翻译：

占用产生的热亲和力反映了海洋物种已知的生理热极限。

预测物种将如何应对环境温度升高是了解全球变化的生态后果的关键。物种的生理耐受性定义了其热极限，而其热亲和力是其实际发生地点的环境温度的总结。已知实验得出的热极限与观测到的海洋物种的纬度范围有关，但许多海洋物种缺乏从中得出纬度范围的准确范围图。另一种方法是将广泛可用的全球事件数据与网格化的全球温度数据集相结合，得出物种水平“热亲和力”的测量值，即测量环境温度的集中趋势、变化以及上下限。记录到某个物种出现的地点。在这里，我们使用来自 24 个分类类别的 533 个海洋物种的数据以及实验得出的跨度为 2-44.5°C 的临界上限温度来测试这种基于占用的热亲和力测量与海洋物种已知热极限的相关程度。我们表明，尽管源数据存在差距和偏差，但热亲和力估计与海洋物种的生理耐受性始终呈正相关。我们的方法可以快速、可重复地估计数千种海洋物种的热亲和力测量，从而大大扩展了评估海洋群落对海洋变暖的脆弱性的潜力。

更新日期：2020-07-30

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