Abstract The olive fly, Bactrocera oleae (Rossi), is the main pest in most olive-growing regions. During a 10-year study (2001–2011), olive fly population levels were evaluated in twenty olive groves in the region of Madrid, Spain, as part of the “European Program of Quality Improvement in Olive Oil and Table Olives”. The fly population data obtained by trapping with McPhail traps throughout the season and the damage observed during fruit sampling were analyzed in order to obtain an easy-to-use and inexpensive damage estimation model that could then be used to predict the need for control measures. We observed that the increase in the number of adults caught in McPhail traps was significantly correlated with the increase in production damage. For the same increase in the olive fly population, there was more damage to the olive crop in the years when the date of appearance of the first stung fruit occurred later. Additionally, a significant correlation was obtained between the size of the olive fly population that caused the first damage and the size of the olive fly population that caused the total damage through the end of the harvest season. Therefore, the potential damage to the olive fruit crop at harvest time (usually in December) can be easily estimated in the middle of September by knowing the date that olive fly damage was first detected (first stung date) and by estimating the olive fly population size at the end of the season (obtained empirically from the population size when fruit damage was first detected). This means that prevention and control measures can be anticipated up to three months before the beginning of harvest.

中文翻译：

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用于预测橄榄生产中害虫控制策略的 Bactrocera oleae (Rossi) 损伤估计模型

摘要 橄榄蝇 Bactrocera oleae (Rossi) 是大多数橄榄产区的主要害虫。在一项为期 10 年的研究（2001-2011 年）中，作为“欧洲橄榄油和食用橄榄质量改进计划”的一部分，在西班牙马德里地区的 20 个橄榄园中评估了橄榄蝇种群水平。分析了整个季节使用 McPhail 诱捕器捕获的果蝇种群数据以及水果采样期间观察到的损害，以获得易于使用且成本低廉的损害估计模型，然后可用于预测控制措施的需求。我们观察到，被 McPhail 陷阱捕获的成虫数量的增加与生产损失的增加显着相关。对于橄榄蝇种群的同样增加，在第一个刺果出现日期较晚的年份，橄榄作物受到的损害更大。此外，在导致第一次损害的橄榄蝇种群规模与在收获季节结束时造成总损害的橄榄蝇种群规模之间获得了显着的相关性。因此，在 9 月中旬，通过了解首次检测到橄榄果蝇损害的日期（第一次被螫伤的日期）并估计橄榄果蝇种群，可以在 9 月中旬轻松估计收获时间（通常在 12 月）对橄榄果作物的潜在损害季节结束时的大小（根据首次检测到果实受损时的种群大小凭经验获得）。